Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - Qingdao Beer, as a leading beer company in China, is expected to see revenue exceed expectations due to multiple catalysts including policy-driven consumption recovery, inventory destocking in 2024, potential management changes, and the recovery of the dining sector [2][3] - The recovery of the dining chain is highly certain, with expectations for volume and price to rise from a low base in 2025 [2] - The company is anticipated to benefit from a management change, which may bring more positive initiatives and goals [3] Summary by Sections Sales and Price Drivers - Volume: The recovery of the dining chain driven by consumption vouchers is expected to lead to sales exceeding expectations, particularly in the 6-10 RMB price range [3] - Price: The upgrade in the 6-10 RMB price range is expected to continue, with room for further price increases as Qingdao Beer has positioned its classic products at the 8 RMB price point [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue growth rates are projected at 6.05% for 2024, 3.18% for 2025, and 3.22% for 2026 [4] - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 1.27% for 2024, 11.26% for 2025, and 9.77% for 2026 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 3.17, 3.52, and 3.87 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Valuation and Price Target - The target valuation for Qingdao Beer H shares is based on a 70% discount to the A-share valuation of 25x, with the current discount at approximately 63.7%, indicating high elasticity [4] - The report maintains that the current valuation offers good value for investment [4]
青岛啤酒股份：更新报告：β修复与α催化共振，看好向上弹性