理财“超低波”时代或终结

Regulatory Impact on Wealth Management - Financial regulators have intervened to restrict wealth management subsidiaries from using self-built valuation models, closing price smoothing, and other methods to artificially reduce product volatility[2] - The smoothing of valuations by wealth management products contradicts the core principles of the 2018 Asset Management New Regulations, leading to regulatory tightening in 2024[2] - By Q2 2024, regulators had terminated existing manual interest subsidy contracts and halted smoothing valuation collaborations between wealth management and trust companies[2] Market and Product Adjustments - Wealth management products may need to lower performance benchmarks, with current benchmarks for daily open, minimum holding period, fixed open, and closed products at 2.00%, 2.45%, 2.95%, and 3.00% respectively[6] - Wealth management products may shift towards more stable, liquid assets and reduce holdings in high-volatility assets like perpetual bonds and low-rated credit bonds[6] - The bond market may experience increased volatility as traditional smoothing methods are phased out, potentially leading to more active trading in liquid assets like government bonds[9] Specific Asset and Market Data - As of November 2024, the scale of private placement bonds under the "trust institution" category on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 2.61 trillion yuan, accounting for 8.1% of wealth management scale[5] - The credit spread volatility for AA+ rated non-public urban investment bonds since March 2023 has been higher than that of central government bonds, with 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year spreads at 9.7bp, 19.6bp, and 28.1bp respectively[5] - Wealth management funds allocated to asset management products and entrusted investments were 46.4% and 5.8% respectively by Q3 2024, indicating a "half-direct, half-entrusted" investment model[9]