轻工制造行业2025年年度策略：把握内需复苏顺周期，出口关注优质个股

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry sector, with specific companies recommended for investment including Kuka Home, Mousse, Xilinmen, Oppein, Sophia, and others [2][3][181]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of domestic demand and the cyclical nature of the industry, suggesting that companies with strong brand recognition and compliance with national subsidy policies are likely to benefit [3][29][167]. - The home furnishing sector is expected to see a rebound due to stabilizing real estate sales and supportive government policies, particularly in the context of the "old-for-new" replacement policy [3][29][30]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic brands in the consumer sector, noting their agility and responsiveness to market changes compared to foreign brands [3][57][174]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The light industry sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a 2% decline in the light industry index versus a 13% increase in the CSI 300 index from early 2024 to late November 2024 [17][19]. 2. Domestic Demand - The report identifies two main lines of focus: cyclical recovery and domestic substitution in the home furnishing and paper sectors [3][29]. - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, which is expected to positively impact the home furnishing industry [29][30]. - The national subsidy policy for home renovation is anticipated to continue into 2025, benefiting larger, compliant brands [29][41]. 3. Consumer Sector - Domestic brands are expected to gain market share due to their closer alignment with consumer preferences and market dynamics [3][57][174]. - The sanitary napkin market is highlighted, with companies like Baiya benefiting from national expansion and product optimization [3][59][174]. - The electrical appliance sector is led by Bull Group, which is expected to see stable growth from traditional business while expanding into new areas [3][72][174]. 4. Paper Sector - The report suggests that the paper industry will benefit from a cyclical recovery in demand, with a focus on cultural paper over other types [4][79][177]. - The overall demand for paper is expected to improve in 2025, with seasonal price fluctuations anticipated [4][80][177]. 5. Export Opportunities - The report outlines three main lines for export focus: overseas capacity expansion, real estate chain benefits, and high-growth industry leaders [4][129]. - The easing of interest rates in the U.S. is expected to boost consumer confidence and demand for home goods and daily necessities [4][129][157]. - Companies with established overseas production capabilities are seen as well-positioned to navigate potential tariff impacts [4][149][150]. 6. Key Companies - Specific companies recommended for investment include: - Kuka Home: Expected to benefit from national subsidy policies and market share growth [3][168]. - Mousse: Strong brand and product optimization expected to yield benefits [3][169]. - Xilinmen: Anticipated to gain from the ongoing subsidy policies [3][172]. - Oppein: Expected to enhance market share through strategic adjustments [3][171]. - Baiya: Projected growth from national expansion and product innovation [3][174]. - Bull Group: Stable growth anticipated from traditional and new business lines [3][176]. - Mingyue Lens: Expected to benefit from the growing demand for affordable products [3][174].