航运2025年年度策略：供给开启出清，静待需求拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the oil tanker sector, specifically recommending COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. [1][43] Core Insights - The oil tanker sector is expected to experience a supply clearing trend in 2025, with a potential demand turning point on the horizon. The supply side shows a low growth trend, while the demand side is anticipated to improve due to domestic recovery and increased U.S. crude oil trade volumes [1][21]. - The container shipping sector is projected to gradually ease supply-demand tensions in 2025, with freight rates expected to return to a downward trend [1][33]. - The bulk shipping sector is expected to maintain a weak recovery trend, with supply-demand dynamics showing slight improvement [1][42]. Summary by Sections Oil Tanker Sector Strategy - Supply side: The oil tanker industry is witnessing a supply clearing trend, with new VLCC orders increasing to 75 vessels, representing 8.31% of current capacity, compared to only 22 vessels (2.44%) in December 2023 [9][11]. - Demand side: The demand for oil tankers is expected to improve, driven by domestic economic recovery and increased crude oil imports. In October 2024, domestic crude oil imports were 44.7 million tons, down 8.72% year-on-year [19][21]. - Outlook for 2025: VLCC total capacity is projected to be 270.6 million deadweight tons, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4%. Demand is expected to reach 194.3 million deadweight tons, corresponding to a growth rate of 2.4% [21]. Container Shipping Sector Strategy - Supply side: The container shipping market has passed its peak delivery period, with a total capacity delivered in 2024 reaching 2.512 million TEU, the highest since 2021 [22][24]. - Demand side: Domestic export demand remains stable, with October 2024 exports reaching $309.058 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.68% [27][32]. - Outlook for 2025: The container shipping market's capacity is expected to reach 32.5 million TEU, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. Demand growth is projected at 2.8% [33]. Bulk Shipping Sector Strategy - Supply side: The bulk shipping fleet's capacity is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, reaching a total capacity of 1,064.9 million deadweight tons [42]. - Demand side: Global bulk shipping demand is anticipated to grow by 0.6% in 2025, reflecting a weak recovery trend [42].