Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the machinery industry, with a focus on small and mid-cap companies experiencing valuation recovery [2] Core Views - The machinery industry has seen moderate growth, with the Shenwan Machinery Index rising by 11.18% year-to-date as of December 6, 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices but outperforming the CSI 500 index [2] - Small and mid-cap companies in the machinery sector have shown significant growth in the second half of 2024, with companies in the 200-500 billion market cap range rising by 50.65% [3] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with strong recovery potential, such as industrial mother machines, construction machinery, and industrial control, as well as high-growth sectors like humanoid robots, semiconductor equipment, lithium battery equipment, photovoltaic equipment, and laser equipment [3] Sector Performance - The machinery sector's overall valuation has returned to historical median levels, with the PE-TTM (excluding negative values) of the Shenwan Machinery Index at 27.31x as of December 6, 2024, close to the historical median of 27.35x since 2014 [2] - Sub-sectors such as motorcycles, printing and packaging machinery, robotics, semiconductor equipment, and construction machinery have seen significant gains, with increases of 54.06%, 40.26%, 32.93%, 31.06%, and 29.25% respectively [2] Small and Mid-Cap Growth - Small and mid-cap companies in the machinery sector have outperformed in the second half of 2024, driven by policy support and improved market sentiment [3] - Companies with market caps between 200-500 billion have seen the largest gains, rising by 50.65% [3] Recovery in General Equipment - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% in October 2024, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity, which is expected to benefit general equipment sectors like industrial mother machines, construction machinery, and industrial control equipment [3] Growth in Specialized Equipment - Specialized equipment sectors, particularly those with high growth potential and certainty, are expected to see continued valuation recovery, with a focus on humanoid robots, semiconductor equipment, photovoltaic equipment, lithium battery equipment, and laser equipment [4] Industrial Mother Machines - Industrial mother machines, or machine tools, are critical to modern industrial development, with metal cutting machines accounting for 40%-60% of the workload in general machine manufacturing [45] - The domestic machine tool industry has a high overall localization rate, but there is still significant room for improvement in mid-to-high-end machine tools [52] Construction Machinery - Construction machinery is expected to recover, driven by infrastructure investment, with the operating hours of Komatsu excavators in China increasing by 4.3% year-on-year in October 2024 [63] - The global electrification rate of construction machinery is low, with significant potential for growth, particularly in China where the penetration rate of electric loaders reached 12.4% in October 2024 [65][66] Industrial Control Equipment - The industrial control equipment market is at the bottom of the cycle, with weak demand recovery in 2024, but sectors like 3C electronics, new energy, and semiconductors are expected to drive growth [80] - Domestic companies like Inovance Technology have gained significant market share in the industrial control sector, with a 27.6% share in the general servo system market in China [81] Humanoid Robots - Humanoid robots are expected to address the customization pain points in traditional manufacturing, with Tesla planning to start limited production of its Optimus humanoid robot in 2025 [89][91] - The global humanoid robot market is projected to grow from 13.8 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 44.75% [91] Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor industry is expected to recover from the bottom, driven by the rebound in global smartphone and PC shipments, with domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers making significant progress in technology and market penetration [103][109] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is expected to benefit from the dual drivers of localization and AI innovation cycles, with companies like NAURA and AMEC leading the way [109] Lithium Battery Equipment - The global lithium battery market is expected to reach 2.4TWh by 2025, with high-end capacity utilization remaining strong, particularly for leading battery companies with strong technical capabilities and customer resources [116] - Domestic lithium battery equipment manufacturers are expanding overseas, with significant investments in Europe, and are expected to capture a larger share of the global market [117][121] Photovoltaic Equipment - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a decline in upstream silicon prices, which is driving downstream capacity release, with domestic new PV installations reaching 181.30GW in the first 10 months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.17% [125] - PV module exports have increased in volume but decreased in price, with TOPCon technology leading the efficiency breakthrough in N-type batteries, replacing PERC as the industry mainstream [127]
机械行业2025年投资展望：中小市值估值持续修复，关注顺周期与高成长
东兴证券·2024-12-11 10:01