休闲零食行业专题：从渠道变革看休闲零食行业发展

Investment Rating - The report rates the leisure snack industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The leisure snack industry in China is currently in a steady expansion phase, having transitioned from rapid growth to a stable growth stage [12][61] - The industry is characterized by a fragmented market structure, with significant differences in concentration across various categories [37][61] - The distribution channels for leisure snacks are diverse, heavily influenced by channel evolution, with supermarkets, convenience stores, and online platforms playing key roles [5][61] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The leisure snack market in China is approaching a scale of nearly 500 billion RMB, with a projected CAGR of 5% from 2010 to 2024 [12][16] - The market has experienced a slowdown in growth rates since 2012, influenced by rising disposable income and changing consumer preferences [12][16] Channel Evolution - The industry has undergone three major channel transformations since the 21st century: the rise of foreign investment and supermarkets before 2012, the explosion of e-commerce from 2013 to 2019, and the current preference for cost-effective multi-channel strategies [5][61] - Supermarkets saw a decline in growth starting in 2012, while convenience stores have been rapidly expanding, indicating a shift in consumer shopping habits [5][61] - Online sales have increased significantly, from less than 1% of total snack sales in 2012 to over 20% in 2024, although it is not expected to become the dominant channel [5][61] Competitive Landscape - The leisure snack industry is highly fragmented, with the top 10 companies holding only about 22% of the market share, indicating room for growth in market concentration [37][61] - Certain categories, such as baked goods and ice cream, have seen higher concentration levels, with leading brands like Mars and Yili dominating their respective segments [48][49] - The report highlights that while local brands have established a strong presence in some categories, foreign brands still lead in others, particularly in Western-style snacks [51][56] Future Outlook - The report estimates that the theoretical ceiling for convenience store outlets in Hunan province could reach nearly 5,000, suggesting a national potential of over 70,000 stores [5][61] - Despite the rapid growth of convenience stores, the report notes that achieving significant market share will take time, as seen in the historical development of the convenience store sector [5][61]