拨雪寻春：2025年中国宏观经济展望

Consumption - The introduction of special bonds to support "old-for-new" policies indicates a shift in fiscal strategy, balancing long-term benefits with immediate consumer demand, with fiscal costs estimated at around 404 billion CNY[2] - Retail sales growth is projected to reach 5.1% in 2025, driven by the expansion of "old-for-new" programs and increased fiscal support[2] - In September 2024, the consumer spending tendency reached 62%, the highest since 2020, indicating potential for improved consumption despite income growth slowing[2] Export - Export growth is projected at approximately 0.2% in 2025 if trade tensions with the US stabilize, while a significant escalation could lead to a decline of about -3.8%[2] - China's export share reached a historic high of 15.7% in June 2024, outperforming the global average[2] Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to be around 7.6% in 2025, supported by policies favoring equipment upgrades and a shift in investment dynamics[2] - As of September 2024, manufacturing investment growth was recorded at 9.2%, with equipment purchases significantly outpacing construction investments[2] Infrastructure - Infrastructure growth is anticipated to be around 10.2% in 2025, bolstered by increased fiscal leverage and ongoing projects related to urbanization and maintenance of aging infrastructure[2] - The fiscal space for infrastructure projects remains significant, with local governments expected to play a crucial role in funding[2] Real Estate - Real estate investment is projected to decline by -10% in 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector despite signs of stabilization in sales in major cities[2] - The overall fixed asset investment growth is expected to improve to around 3.8% in 2025, aided by fiscal and monetary policy adjustments[2]