2025年度展望（七）：财政政策：总量力度增加、节奏靠前发力

Group 1: Lessons from the U.S. Financial Stimulus - The output multiplier for expanding government spending and subsidies to low-income groups may be the most effective fiscal stimulus, with multipliers ranging from 0.4 to over 2.0[1] - From 2008 to 2012, the U.S. implemented over $1.953 trillion in fiscal stimulus, with a peak deficit rate of 9.8% in 2009[1][3] - The fiscal measures included direct payments to individuals, which were often used for savings or debt repayment, necessitating a significant increase in the deficit to stimulate consumption[1][3] Group 2: 2025 China Fiscal Outlook - The broad deficit rate in China may reach approximately 10% in 2025, with a projected increase of nearly 3 trillion yuan to 14.3423 trillion yuan[2][84] - The narrow deficit rate is expected to approach 4% under neutral assumptions, with significant increases in special bonds to support real estate and replace hidden debts[2][84] - Conventional measures like issuing consumption vouchers have shown a redemption rate exceeding 60%, with a consumption leverage effect between 5-20[2][95] Group 3: Local Government Debt and Investment - The decentralization of local government debt project approval may lead to an accelerated supply of local bonds, with a planned issuance of 2.8 trillion yuan in 2025 to address government debt risks[3][115] - Local government investment willingness may take time to recover, as the approval process for projects and the management of existing debts become more stringent[3][128] - The issuance of long-term local bonds (10 years and above) is expected to increase due to the need to meet repayment obligations for existing debts[3][115]