锂电跟踪系列（1）：锂电排产上行，涨价预期渐起

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - Lithium battery production is on the rise, with expectations of high output in December. According to SMM data, domestic lithium battery production in November was approximately 148 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 8%, and is expected to remain high at around 145 GWh in December. The total annual production for 2024 is projected to be approximately 1288 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 38% [4] - The LFP segment has contributed the most to the increase in production, with January's ternary battery production at approximately 23 GWh and LFP battery production at about 40 GWh. In December, ternary battery production is expected to be around 36 GWh, while LFP production is projected to be about 105 GWh [4] - The material utilization rate has improved, with the largest increases seen in the LFP and lithium hexafluorophosphate segments. From January to November 2024, the utilization rate for the ternary segment increased from 40% to 43%, while the LFP segment rose from 28% to 66% [4] - Prices remain at the bottom level, but expectations for price increases are emerging. As of December 6, the prices for various lithium battery segments are still at low levels, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 77,000 CNY/ton, and LFP cathode prices at 34,000 CNY/ton [4] - Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2025, the overall lithium battery materials sector is expected to see price increases after a seasonal adjustment and improved capacity utilization [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The lithium battery production is expected to maintain high levels, with significant year-on-year growth anticipated for 2024 [4] - The demand from downstream sectors, particularly in new energy vehicles, is showing strong growth, with retail sales in November reaching 1.268 million units, a year-on-year increase of 51% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines for investment opportunities in the lithium battery sector: 1. Leading companies in various segments: CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [4] 2. Solid-state battery companies: Guansheng Co., and Sanxiang New Materials [4]