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农林牧渔行业研究周报：商品猪出栏均价周环比下跌，12月出栏或加速
Shengang Securities·2024-12-12 00:44

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [7] Core Insights - The average price of market pigs has decreased by 5.22% week-on-week, reaching 15.62 CNY/kg as of December 6, 2024, indicating a significant drop after a period of gradual recovery [21][35] - The average price of piglets has also fallen by 3.94%, with the average price for 7kg piglets at 383.33 CNY/head [21] - The planned slaughter volume for December is expected to increase by 6.58% month-on-month, indicating a faster pace of slaughter compared to November [33] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The average weight of market pigs has decreased to 123.70 kg, down 0.02% week-on-week, while the average post-slaughter weight is 91.86 kg, down 0.04% [4][28] - The price difference for standard fat pigs has narrowed slightly to -0.51 CNY/kg, suggesting potential price advantages for fat pigs as demand may rise with colder weather [28] Profitability - The average breeding profit for self-bred pigs is 172.31 CNY/head, a decrease of 23.47 CNY/head from the previous week, while the loss for purchased piglets has increased to 47.10 CNY/head [5][34] - The report indicates that leading companies are expected to maintain improved profitability in Q4, driven by stable pig prices and improved earnings [37] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in pig farming such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture, which have scale and cost advantages [6][40] - In the poultry sector, attention is drawn to companies with proprietary breeding sources like Shennong Development and Yisheng Livestock [40] Industry Trends - The report notes a shift in slaughtering sentiment, with some regions experiencing accelerated slaughter and price reductions, influenced by market pressures [35] - The overall performance of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector index increased by 0.67%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index which rose by 1.44% [42]