万联证券：万联晨会-20241212

Core Views - The A-share market showed a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to 3,432.49 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.33% [2][5] - The trading volume in the A-share market reached approximately 17,760.97 billion RMB, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to 7.285 billion HKD [2][5] - The retail and textile industries led the gains in the Shenwan industry sector, while banking and non-bank financial sectors experienced declines [2][5] Market Review - The report highlights that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for November increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and marking the highest month-on-month increase since April [2][5] - Following the CPI release, traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising to 99.9% from 86.1% prior to the data release [2][5] Real Estate Industry Insights - The report indicates a strong policy commitment to stabilize the real estate market, with the Politburo meeting in September emphasizing the need for the industry to "stop falling and stabilize" [6][9] - It is expected that the real estate market will see a gradual recovery, supported by a series of policies aimed at improving buyer sentiment and market conditions [6][9] - The report forecasts that the total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes will remain relatively stable, with a slight decline in new home sales expected in 2025 [9] AI Mobile Phone Market Analysis - The AI mobile phone market is anticipated to grow significantly, with projected shipments reaching 150 million units in 2024, accounting for 13% of global smartphone shipments [10][12] - Major smartphone manufacturers are actively integrating AI capabilities into their devices, enhancing user experience through improved functionalities such as photography and text generation [10][12] - The demand for AI capabilities is driving advancements in mobile processing and storage technologies, with expectations for significant growth in AI processing power in flagship smartphones by 2025 [10][12]