有色与新材料行业2025年年度策略报告：贵金属应势而上，顺周期恰逢其时

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the non-ferrous metals and new materials industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights that 2025 will be a year of continued fermentation of core contradictions across various metal categories, with the monetary attributes of precious metals rising, supply constraints for industrial metals deepening, and the bottom range for energy metals being confirmed [7] - The report suggests focusing on clear mainlines, high certainty, and sectors at the bottom range with potential for significant elasticity due to marginal improvements [7] Precious Metals - Gold - The monetary attributes of gold are expected to continue rising, with the gold price likely to maintain an upward trend due to the inflection point in US real interest rates [7] - Short-term volatility in gold prices may increase due to factors such as a strong dollar, but the medium-term outlook remains positive with monetary and safe-haven attributes continuing to anchor gold pricing [7][25] - The report predicts that gold's monetary attributes will continue to expand in 2025, driven by global economic and geopolitical uncertainties [7][25] Industrial Metals - Copper - Copper prices in 2024 experienced high volatility, with a long-term resource bottleneck beginning to emerge as a new pricing variable [8] - The report identifies two main themes for copper pricing in 2025: the fermentation of long-term resource shortages and the recovery of manufacturing demand driven by domestic and international loose policies [8] - Global copper supply is expected to remain tight, with limited incremental supply from major projects, and demand is expected to improve due to policy-driven manufacturing recovery [8][44] Industrial Metals - Aluminum - The aluminum industry in 2024 faced supply constraints, particularly in the alumina segment, leading to marginal compression of profit margins for electrolytic aluminum [8] - In 2025, the pricing of electrolytic aluminum will focus on supply-demand dynamics, with supply-side rigidity accelerating and the supply-demand gap expected to widen, leading to a revaluation of aluminum's value center [8] - The report highlights that the rigid supply of electrolytic aluminum, combined with high demand growth, will likely lead to a sustained shortage in the global aluminum market [8][63] Industrial Metals - Tin - Tin supply is expected to face increasing pressure due to resource shortages, particularly from Myanmar, where mining suspensions have led to a tightening of raw materials [8] - Demand for tin is expected to grow, driven by the semiconductor industry's long-term upward cycle, leading to a potential increase in tin prices [8] - The report predicts that the global tin market will remain tight, with supply shortages accelerating and demand growth opening up further [8][81] Energy Metals - Lithium - Lithium prices in 2024 remained low, leading to the clearing of high-cost capacities and delays in some planned projects, resulting in a slowdown in global lithium supply growth [9] - The report suggests that the lithium market is gradually improving, with the oversupply situation narrowing and cost support becoming more evident [9] - The report highlights that the lithium market is entering a phase of marginal improvement, with inventory levels beginning to decline and supply growth slowing [9][95] Energy Metals - Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to remain in a bottom range, with supply-side disturbances and cost support becoming more evident [12] - The report notes that while the global nickel market remains oversupplied, the bottom signals are becoming clearer, with some projects delayed and profitability declining [12] - The report suggests that nickel prices may have entered a bottom range, with cost support likely to accelerate and demand for nickel expected to grow due to technological advancements in the battery sector [12][113] Investment Recommendations - For gold, the report recommends focusing on companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold, as the monetary attributes of gold are expected to continue rising [12] - For copper, the report recommends companies like Zijin Mining and CMOC, given the long-term resource bottleneck and potential demand recovery [12] - For aluminum, the report recommends companies like Tianshan Aluminum, Chalco, Shenhuo, and Yunnan Aluminum, as the supply-demand gap is expected to widen [12] - For tin, the report recommends Yunnan Tin, as supply shortages and rising demand are expected to drive tin prices higher [12] - For lithium, the report recommends companies like Sinomine Resource and Tianqi Lithium, as the market is expected to improve with supply growth slowing and demand recovering [12]