石油石化 2025 年 11 月 16 日 石油石化周报 俄乌互相打击对方能源设施，俄油出口受阻支撑油价 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24-01 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 25-03 25-05 25-07 25-09 25-11 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 石油石化·行业周报 投资建议： 本周，我们建议关注石油石化、氟化工、半导体材料板块。石油石化：俄乌互相打击对方能源设施，美委关系持续紧张，叠加美 国经济运行情况、未来降息政策尚存不确定性，短期内油价仍有一定支撑；但中长期油价仍将锚定基本面，随着 OPEC+增产的持 续推进，旺季之后基本面过剩预期或将逐步兑现，油价仍存在中枢进一步下移的担忧。面对国际油价剧烈震荡，国内油企通 过上 下游一体化布局和油气来源多元化降低了业绩对油价的敏感性，并加快在国内海上油气资源开放方面的投入，以降低能源对 外依 ...

2025 年 11 月 14 日 2025 年 10 月金融数据点评 新型政策性工具拉动社融 证券分析师 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 2025 年 11 月 13 日，央行发布 2025 年 10 月金融统计数据报告。。 宏 观 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 事项： 2025 年 10 月金融数据略有放缓。社融存量同比增长 8.5%，较上月回落 0.2 个 百分点；贷款存量同比增长 6.5%，较上月回落 0.1 个百分点；M1 同比增长 6.2%，较上月回落 1 个百分点；M2 同比增长 8.2%，较上月回落 0.2 个百分点。 10 月金融数据总量稳步增长，尽管政府债和人民币贷款拉动减弱，但企业直接 融资及"准财政"支撑较强，信贷投放结构进一步向重点领域倾斜。具体看： 企业直接融资及"准财政"对社融 ...

Financial Data Overview - In October 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 815 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion RMB, falling short of the market expectation of 1.53 trillion RMB[2] - New RMB loans totaled 220 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion RMB, also below market expectations by 240 billion RMB[2] Social Financing Contributions - The year-on-year decrease in social financing was primarily due to a reduction in government bond supply, contributing 560.2 billion RMB, and a decrease in RMB loans by 316.6 billion RMB[3] - Corporate bonds increased by 148.2 billion RMB year-on-year, while foreign currency loans and stock financing rose by 51 billion RMB and 41.2 billion RMB, respectively[3] Credit Market Insights - On the credit side, corporate bill financing was the main contributor, with corporate loans increasing by 220 billion RMB, and corporate bill financing rising by 331.2 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Residential short-term and long-term loans decreased by 335.6 billion RMB and 180 billion RMB, indicating a need for consumer spending stimulation[4] Monetary Supply Trends - M1 growth rate fell by 1.0 percentage points to 6.2%, while M2 growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2%[5] - Non-bank deposits increased by 770 billion RMB, while both resident and corporate deposits decreased by 770 billion RMB and 355.3 billion RMB, respectively[5] Market Strategy Outlook - The overall financial data indicates a decline, but the market is expected to maintain a bullish stance on bonds due to stable liquidity and year-end calendar effects[6] - The yield on 10-year government bonds fell slightly to 1.8025% following the release of financial data, reflecting market adjustments[6]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the current AI market in the context of historical internet bubbles, suggesting that the AI market is in its early bubble stage with significant upward potential [2][7] - The report highlights that since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, AI has become a key driver of the US stock market, with the "Seven Giants" experiencing a stock price increase of 160%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 53% [6][7] - The report emphasizes that the current AI investment landscape is characterized by substantial capital expenditures from major tech companies, raising concerns about potential market bubbles [6][2] Historical Review: Formation and Burst of the Internet Bubble - The internet bubble formed through macroeconomic, mesoeconomic, and microeconomic factors, with a shift from favorable to unfavorable conditions leading to its eventual burst [3][12] - Macroeconomic factors included a long period of loose monetary policy that provided liquidity, followed by a tightening phase initiated by the Federal Reserve in 1999, which contributed to the bubble's collapse [12][14] - Mesoeconomic factors involved the U.S. government elevating technology innovation to a national strategy, which led to excessive investment and accumulated risks [31][35] - Microeconomic factors highlighted that early entrants in the internet space enjoyed significant advantages, but increased competition and immature business models weakened fundamentals, making it difficult to sustain high valuations [39][40] Lessons from History: Similarities Between AI and Internet Bubbles - The report identifies similarities between the current AI market and the internet bubble, particularly in macroeconomic conditions, where a loose liquidity environment supports tech sector growth [2][44] - The U.S. government's focus on AI as a national strategic priority mirrors the 1990s' emphasis on technology, with rapid capital expenditure growth among related companies [2][44] - However, the report notes that the current geopolitical landscape is more complex, which may temper irrational exuberance compared to the 1990s [2][44] Asset Outlook: AI Market Still in Early Stages - The report concludes that the AI market is still in its early stages, with ample long-term growth potential as the industry continues to mature and penetrate various sectors [2][7] - It suggests that the ongoing technological innovations will create a virtuous cycle of breakthroughs, efficiency gains, and profit growth, providing fundamental support for the market's resilience [2][7] - Short-term volatility risks are acknowledged, stemming from inter-company investments, power supply constraints for AI data centers, and intensified global competition [2][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - Global offshore wind installation demand is expected to see significant growth, with China and Europe leading the market. The report anticipates that global offshore wind installations will reach 8GW in 2024, with China contributing over 50% of this growth [3][12]. - The report highlights the strong demand in Europe and the promising outlook in the Asia-Pacific region, with European offshore wind installations projected to grow rapidly [3][25]. - The supply chain dynamics are evolving, with domestic offshore wind turbine manufacturers looking to expand overseas, particularly in Europe and Japan, where demand is expected to rise [3][12]. Summary by Sections Overview: Global Offshore Wind Installations Expected to Double - The report indicates that global offshore wind installations are set to experience a doubling in growth, driven by strong demand from China and Europe [5]. Demand Side: Strong European Demand, Promising Asia-Pacific Outlook - Europe is a key offshore wind market, with 2.7GW of new installations expected in 2024, accounting for 34% of global additions. The report notes that the European market is facing challenges but remains optimistic about future growth [3][25][34]. Supply Side (Part One): Clarity in Offshore Wind Turbine Export Logic - The report discusses the current landscape of offshore wind turbine exports, emphasizing the need for domestic manufacturers to establish overseas production facilities to meet growing international demand [3][12]. Supply Side (Part Two): Focus on Submarine Cables, Piles, and Floating Opportunities - The report identifies key areas of opportunity within the supply chain, including submarine cables and floating wind technology, highlighting the competitive landscape and potential for growth in these segments [3][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests three main investment lines: 1. Favorable conditions for submarine cable companies, recommending Oriental Cable and suggesting attention to Zhongtian Technology [3]. 2. Opportunities in offshore wind turbine manufacturers, recommending Mingyang Smart Energy and Goldwind Technology, while suggesting attention to Yunda Co. and Sany Heavy Energy [3]. 3. Focus on floating wind technology, recommending Astar Anchor Chain and Mingyang Smart Energy [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 104.79 CNY as of November 11 [1]. Core Views - The company is transitioning towards sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, which is expected to be a key growth driver for future revenues and profits. The SAF project in Lianyungang is projected to significantly enhance the company's profitability and market position [8][9][33]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Jiaao Environmental Protection, is a leading producer of environmentally friendly plasticizers and has recently launched SAF products. It has established a complete industrial chain through strategic acquisitions [12][13]. - The Lianyungang SAF project aims to produce 500,000 tons of biomass energy annually, with the first batch of SAF products expected to be exported in 2025 [8][12][33]. Industry Perspective - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the implementation of SAF blending policies across multiple countries, including the EU, UK, and Indonesia, which will drive demand for SAF [9][37]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in SAF demand, with projections indicating that by 2030, China's domestic demand for SAF could reach 2.81 million tons, supported by various national policies [9][37][40]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to generate revenues of 42.23 billion CNY, 64.96 billion CNY, and 97.23 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.89 billion CNY, 3.91 billion CNY, and 6.98 billion CNY [9][10]. - The SAF project is projected to yield a net profit of approximately 6.1 billion CNY at full capacity, with significant growth potential as the company expands its production capabilities [34][35].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [37] Core Insights - Eli Lilly's Q3 2025 revenue increased by 54% year-on-year, reaching $17.6 billion, primarily driven by the strong sales of Tirzepatide [5][10] - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $63 billion to $63.5 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $21.80 to $22.50 [5][10] - Tirzepatide's sales reached $6.515 billion in Q3 2025, a 109% increase, while the weight-loss version Zepbound generated $3.588 billion, a 185% increase [16][5] - The combined revenue from these two products accounted for 57% of Eli Lilly's total Q3 revenue [16][5] Summary by Sections Part 1: Q3 2025 Financial Overview and Key Events - Eli Lilly's Q3 2025 revenue was $17.6 billion, with a 54% year-on-year growth, driven by Tirzepatide sales [10] - The cardiovascular metabolic segment contributed 74.9% of total revenue, with Q3 revenue of $13.178 billion, up 78% [10] - Key events included the rapid increase in market share for GLP-1 products and the approval of Inluriyo for specific breast cancer patients [11][10] Part 2: Core Product Sales Analysis - Tirzepatide is a key growth driver, with Q3 sales of $10.103 billion from both versions [16] - The U.S. market share for Eli Lilly's GLP-1 products reached 57.9%, significantly higher than competitors [16] - The total sales for GLP-1 dual-target drug Tirzepatide in the first three quarters surpassed Keytruda, reaching $24.837 billion [16] Part 3: Future Pipeline Milestones - Clinical trials for Tirzepatide and Retatrutide for MASLD have commenced, with significant data readouts expected [32] - Applications for Orforglipron and Tirzepatide for various indications are planned for submission to regulatory authorities [32] - Regulatory approvals for Tirzepatide and other drugs are in progress, with some applications moving towards full approval [32] Part 4: Investment Recommendations - The GLP-1 product market shows significant potential, with a wide range of indications being explored [35] - Investors are advised to monitor the progress of domestic GLP-1 related companies such as Innovent Biologics and Hengrui Medicine [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 2.201 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 16 million yuan, up 3.21% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 741 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.48%, and net profit attributable to the parent company surged by 106.13% to 2 million yuan [3][6]. - The company has improved its profitability, with a gross margin of 37.08% in Q3, up 1.12 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 0.51%, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year. The management expenses have significantly decreased, contributing to this improvement [6]. - The company is gradually entering a performance release period with its newly established hospitals, having invested in 36 eye hospitals and 4 outpatient departments across over 20 cities by June 30, 2025. This expansion is expected to support sustained growth in performance as new hospitals mature [6]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 52 million yuan, 146 million yuan, and 246 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, reflecting adjustments from previous forecasts [6]. - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2027 are 2.678 billion yuan, 2.761 billion yuan, 2.946 billion yuan, and 3.267 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.5%, 3.1%, 6.7%, and 10.9% respectively [5][8]. - The gross margin is projected to be 37.0% in 2024, decreasing to 32.4% in 2025, and then recovering to 35.3% and 37.1% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [8]. Financial Ratios - The company’s asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease from 53.9% in 2024 to 32.6% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to recover from -4.8% in 2024 to 10.2% in 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround in profitability [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be -0.68 yuan in 2024, turning positive to 0.35 yuan in 2025, and reaching 1.65 yuan by 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a quarter-on-quarter improvement in performance, with significant upcoming projects in copper and multi-metal sectors [5][8] - The lithium salt price has increased, leading to improved profitability, with Q3 sales gross margin reaching 23.24%, up 9.12 percentage points [8] - The company is enhancing its lithium salt production capacity and progressing with copper and multi-metal projects, which are expected to drive future growth [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.19%, and a net profit of 115 million yuan, up 58.18% year-on-year [5] - For the first three quarters, total revenue reached 4.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.99%, while net profit was 204 million yuan, down 62.58% year-on-year [5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 4.31 billion, 11.48 billion, and 23.59 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Corresponding P/E ratios are projected at 98.4, 37.0, and 18.0 times for the same period [8] Operational Developments - The company is upgrading its lithium salt production line and plans to increase its annual production capacity to 71,000 tons [8] - The Kitumba copper mine project is progressing as planned, with initial design and construction phases underway [8] - The Tsumeb multi-metal recycling project is also advancing, with the installation of key processing equipment [8]

Group 1: Economic Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes economic construction as the core focus, aiming to build a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing[9] - Key industrial development lines include "hard technology," advanced manufacturing, domestic circulation, and energy resource security[3] - The plan aims to create a market space of 10 trillion yuan by optimizing traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors over the next five years[8] Group 2: Hard Technology and Advanced Manufacturing - The plan highlights the importance of original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs, particularly in AI and digital technologies[12] - The automotive industry is expected to see accelerated commercialization of L3/L4 autonomous driving technologies during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[34] - The focus on advanced manufacturing aims to enhance the global competitiveness of traditional industries like chemicals and machinery, with a push towards smart and green manufacturing[8] Group 3: Domestic Circulation and Consumption - The plan stresses the need to boost consumption and expand effective investment, particularly in the real estate sector, to support high-quality development[3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the operational environment for construction materials and consumer goods, benefiting companies in these sectors[3] Group 4: Resource Security - The plan calls for strengthening the exploration and development of strategic mineral resources, particularly rare earths, to enhance their strategic importance[3] - It emphasizes the need for a new energy system, focusing on clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy while promoting renewable energy sources[3] Group 5: Market Outlook and Risks - The equity market is expected to maintain high volatility, with a focus on sectors benefiting from industrial recovery and performance superiority[3] - Key risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, lower-than-expected corporate profit growth, and geopolitical uncertainties[3]