海外宏观 2026 年 2 月 13 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏观动态跟踪报告 美国就业韧性超预期——美国 1 月非农就业数据解读 证券分析师 事项： 2026 年 1 月美国新增非农就业 13 万人，预期 6.5 万人，失业率回落至 4.3%。 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 动 态 跟 踪 报 告 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG934@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 杨见一 投资咨询资格编号 S1320525050001 YANGJIANYI730@pingan.com.cn 美国 1 月就业数据大幅超预期。企业调查方面，美国 2026 年 1 月新增非 农就业 13 万人超预期，但行业结构分化，新增就业主要依赖教育医疗业 和建筑业新增拉动，其余行业新增就业偏低或负增。家庭调查方面，1 月 失业率回落至 4.3%，预期 4.4%，同样指向就业市场好于预期。供需视角， 1 月美国就业市场延续供给上行、需求下降的正常化态势：劳动参与率小 幅回升至 ...

Macro Perspective - Since 2025, China's economy has increasingly shown characteristics of "new and superior" development, with new productive forces being cultivated and diverse consumer preferences becoming more prominent[3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was 52.0% in January 2026, consistently outperforming the overall manufacturing PMI of 49.3%[21] - High-tech industries' added value grew by 11.0% year-on-year in December 2025, exceeding the overall industrial enterprises' growth by 5.8 percentage points[21] Industry Perspective - Investment in advanced manufacturing, such as aerospace and automotive, grew by 16.9% and 11.7% respectively, outpacing overall manufacturing investment growth[25] - The information technology service sector saw an investment increase of 28.4%, maintaining over 25% growth for 11 consecutive months[25] - The revenue growth of strategic emerging services was 9.9%, while high-tech services grew by 8.6%, both surpassing the overall service sector growth of 7.8%[24] Market Perspective - As of January 2026, the market capitalization weight of the A-share information and communication sector reached 24%, surpassing financial and real estate sectors at 19%[3] - The market capitalization of A-share new economy MAG7 stocks is below that of US MAG7 stocks (20%+) and Hong Kong stocks (10+%), indicating room for growth[3] - The performance of A-share strategic emerging industries showed a profit growth of 15.5%, exceeding the overall non-financial A-share sector's growth of 13.8%[38] Outlook and Risks - The transition from old to new economic drivers is expected to accelerate, positioning new economic sectors as the main growth engine for China's economy[3] - Key investment areas include technology innovation and advanced manufacturing, particularly in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals[3] - Risks include potential market learning effects, unexpected tightening of macro and industrial policies, and significant changes in macroeconomic conditions and liquidity[3]

Export Trends - In 2025, China's export share remained stable at 13.6%, only down 0.7 percentage points from 2024, demonstrating global competitiveness[3] - The U.S. market accounted for 11.1% of China's exports, a decrease of approximately 3.5 percentage points from 2024, contributing to a 2.9% drag on overall export growth[3] - ASEAN, the EU, and Africa emerged as significant markets, with ASEAN's share rising to 17.6% and the EU's to 14.8%, offsetting declines in U.S. exports[10] Product Structure - The export structure showed a strong influence from overseas AI investments, with electric machinery and components contributing 2.3% to export growth in 2025[33] - The automotive sector, driven by Chinese EV companies, added approximately 0.7% to export growth, while traditional labor-intensive products negatively impacted exports by 0.6%[3] - Exports of intermediate and capital goods, particularly chemicals and machinery, performed well, contributing 1.2% to overall export growth[3] Import Dynamics - China's imports showed signs of recovery starting in Q2 2025, with significant contributions from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea[3] - High-tech intermediate goods, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products were the main drivers of import growth, reflecting a shift towards higher value-added imports[3] - The overall import growth rate was 0.5% in 2025, with a notable decline in traditional energy imports and a focus on high-tech products[3] Future Outlook - For 2026, global trade is expected to continue expanding, albeit at a slower rate, with strong support for China's exports in non-U.S. markets[3] - Domestic demand is anticipated to show a mix of new and old growth drivers, with continued expansion of trade partnerships contributing to import growth[3] - Import prices are projected to rise moderately, leading to a gentle increase in overall import growth rates[3]

证券研究报告 2026年02月12日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心观点 低轨卫星网络陆续组建，手机直连卫星将成为星地融合产业破局关键。手机直连卫星服务指手机不经过中转设备，直接通过无线通信连 接通信卫星并提供语音互通、文字收发或数据交换服务的活动。低轨卫星互联网可对地面通信网络覆盖的空白给与补充，极大扩展了卫 星通信的应用场景，但商业化问题仍需通过"星地融合"路径解决，手机直连卫星是重要应用方向。 当前产业内手机直连包括三种技术路线，其中3GPP NTN是公认未来方向。一是由终端厂商主导推进、基于现有卫星通信体制的"新手机 + 旧卫星"路线。在智能手机中集成专用卫星通信模组并依托已有的低轨或高轨卫星系统，采用独立的卫星通信协议与频段。优势在于 技术成熟、商用落地快，但需定制手机，难以兼容存量设备，通信速率较低，终端成本较高。二是由卫星运营商主导、基于现有地面移 动通信体制的"旧手机 + 新卫星"路线。直接使用地面蜂窝移动通信技术和频段，现网4G/5G手机无需任何硬件改动即可直连卫星，卫 星作为空间"基站"实现地面和手机间信号的转发。卫星需配备超大型相控阵天线、更高发射功率及复杂信号处理能力，系统部署难度 高 ...

2026 年 02 月 12 日 2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 CPI 短期承压，PPI 改善延续 证券分析师 事项： 2026 年 1 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.2%，PPI 同比为-1.4%。 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 受春节错月影响，2026 年 1 月 CPI 同比涨幅有所收窄，但国际有色金属 价格和存储价格上涨、PPI 环比连续四个月上涨的传导效应显现，物价回 升的积极因素持续增多。 2026 年 1 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.2%，涨幅比上月下降 0.6 个百分点，主要受 春节错月影响。1）大类分项来看，春节因素的影响主要体现在食品和部 分服务价格上，1 月食品价格影响 CPI 同比下降约 0.11 个百分点，而上月 对 CPI 的影响为上拉约 0.21 个百分点；飞机票、旅行社收费和家政服务价 格分别下降 14.3%、7.7% ...

| 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn | 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 2025 年四季度货政报告的四大关注点 额证券分析师 事项： 中国人民银行发布 2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告。 平安观点： 2026 年 2 月 12 日 宏观点评 其二，本季报告明确提及"降准降息"和"保持流动性充裕"，强调"引导 短期货币市场利率更好围绕央行政策利率平稳运行"，资金面的平稳运行成 为年初以来债券市场稳健上涨的重要支持因素。其三，本季报告用"促进社 会综合融资成本低位运行"代替了"推动社会综合融资成本下降"，显示央 行认为当前融资成本已处于低位，从而降准降息需要满足一定触发条件。其 四，本季报告强调"引导金融机构加强项目储备和信贷投放"、"引导金融总 量合理增长、信贷均衡投放"，体现出对信贷总量增长仍有一定要求。 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 1. 对中国经济的信心更 ...

有色金属 2026 年 2 月 11 日 有色金属周报 短期指引待明朗，有色价格波动 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 25/02 25/05 25/08 25/11 26/02 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：金价高位震荡。截至 2 月 6 日，COMEX金主力合约达 4,988.60 美元/盎司，环比上涨 1.65%。SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比减少 0.1%为 1076 吨。周一金价持续回落，后续逐步向上修复。波动率加 速抬升背景下，金价短期或仍将呈现宽幅震荡走势。但长期来看美国 债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线未现拐点，我们认为黄金长期走 势难言见顶，短期企稳后，金价中枢或仍将抬升。 工业金属：工业金属周内回落。 行 业 报 告 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@ ...

证券研究报告 商业航天动态跟踪系列（二） 太空经济前景广阔，商业航天生机勃发 电子行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 分析师： 徐 勇 S1060519090004（证券投资咨询） 2026年2月11日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 分析师： 杨 钟 S1060524050003（证券投资咨询） 分析师： 郭冠君 S1060524050003（证券投资咨询） 核心观点 2 太空经济前景广阔，商业航天生机勃发。商业航天作为当今世界最具活力和潜力的领域之一，正成为推动经济增长和科技进步的重要引擎，成为全 球主要经济体战略竞争的主阵地之一。美中欧三足鼎立格局初步形成，我国商业航天产业要素配置持续优化、市场应用持续拓展、产业生态加速优 化，全球商业航天进入"规模化部署、商业化深耕、全球化竞争"加速期。根据赛迪智库的数据，2025年全球商业航天市场规模预计达到5000亿美 元，同比增长4.1%，低轨卫星组网、可重复使用火箭与太空经济衍生业务成为主要增长点。 20万颗卫星申报，低轨资源圈地进行时。2025年12月29日，中国向国际电信联盟（ITU）一次性提交20.3万颗低轨卫星频轨资源申请。近地轨道与 频谱，是被物理法则 ...

证券研究报告 商业航天动态跟踪系列（一） 激光通信：星间高速公路，重塑卫星通信 电子行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 分析师： 徐 勇 S1060519090004（证券投资咨询） 2026年2月11日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 分析师： 杨 钟 S1060524050003（证券投资咨询） 分析师： 郭冠君 S1060524050003（证券投资咨询） 核心观点 2 空天基建大时代，激光互联构建空间信息高速公路。随着Space X、中国星网为代表的国内外商业航天企业的快速发展，全球正 迈入空天基建大时代。为了将各个空间中孤立的卫星、航天器等个体整合为一个高效智能的规模化网络，空间信息互联技术变得 不可或缺。而激光星间链路作为该领域的关键技术，可在轨道上构建起高容量、低延时、抗干扰的空间信息高速公路，可实现星 间数据快速交换协同等功能，有望深度受益于商业航天的快速发展。 从激光器到光学元器件，卫星激光通信全产业链协同发力。在卫星激光通信产业链中，上游分为光学元件、激光器、探测器、精 密机械结构等；中游厂商为激光通信终端集成商，最终输送给下游卫星平台企业。从市场参与方来看，国内外企业均在积极发力。 国外代 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the wind and solar sectors, including a breakthrough in dry electrode technology by Elon Musk, which is crucial for reducing costs in liquid batteries and mass production of solid-state batteries [6] - The report notes that the wind power index decreased by 1.04%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.30 percentage points, with a current PE_TTM valuation of approximately 27.71 times [4][11] - The solar sector saw a 3.36% increase in the photovoltaic equipment index, with the photovoltaic battery component index rising by 8.10% [4] Summary by Sections Wind Power - The European Commission has initiated an in-depth investigation into Goldwind Technology under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), focusing on whether the company benefits from foreign subsidies in the EU market [5][10] - The report indicates that the impact of this investigation on China's wind turbine exports to Europe is limited in the short term, but it introduces uncertainty for future market entries [10] - The report maintains a positive outlook on China's competitive advantage in the wind power industry and its opportunities for international expansion [5][10] Solar Power - A major BC company, Aiko Solar, has signed a patent licensing agreement with Maxeon Solar, allowing Aiko to access all BC battery and component patents outside the U.S. for the next five years [5] - The total patent licensing fee amounts to RMB 1.65 billion, with the first-year payment set at RMB 250 million [5] - This agreement is expected to eliminate a significant barrier to Aiko's overseas sales and indicates high technical barriers in the BC technology sector [5] Energy Storage & Hydrogen - The report emphasizes the high demand for new energy storage solutions, recommending investments in domestic and international large-scale storage companies such as Sungrow Power, Haibo Shichuang, and Shuneng Electric [6] - In the lithium battery sector, the report suggests that the industry is emerging from a price decline cycle, with strong demand driving both volume and profit growth [6] - The report highlights the potential of dry electrode technology to significantly reduce costs and improve battery performance, which could create new opportunities in related equipment and materials [6]