行 业 报 告 行业点评 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业点评*房地产*待售面积持续收缩， 单月开竣工降幅收窄*强于大市20251215 【平安证券】行业年度策略报告*房地产*曙光渐近， 拥抱价值*强于大市20251203 证券分析师 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 郑茜文 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090003 2025年楼市降幅收窄，2026年曙光渐行渐近 ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.cn 强于大市( 维持) 事项： 房地产 研 究 报 告 投资建议：2025年楼市平稳收官，主流房企表现分化，投资者从关注政 策变化逐步回归公司基本面本源，优质企业走出独立行情。展望2026 年，政策及楼市走向仍为关注重点，但随着市场调整渐进尾声，部分产 品及区域逐步止跌回稳，预计个股表现仍将延续分化，建议关注三条主 线：1）历史包袱较轻、库存结构优化、拿地及产品力强的房企有望持续 受益"好房子"建设，如华润置地、建发国际集团、滨江集团、中国海外发 展、绿城中国、招商蛇口、保利发展、越秀地产等；2）受益香港楼市止 ...

基金研究 2026 年 1 月 19 日 《衍生品交易监督管理办法（试行）（征求意见稿）》解读 完善多层次资本市场，稳慎有序发展衍生品 证券分析师 研究助理 胡心怡 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124030069 HUXINYI184@pingan.com.cn 高 越 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124070014 GAOYUE384@pingan.com.cn 事项： 为贯彻《国务院关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》（国 发〔2024〕10 号，以下简称《若干意见》）部署要求，落实《中华人民共和国期 货和衍生品法》（以下简称《期货和衍生品法》）规定，促进衍生品市场规范健康 发展，中国证监会起草形成了《衍生品交易监督管理办法（试行）（征求意见稿）》 （以下简称《征求意见稿》），于 2026 年 1 月 16 日向社会公开征求意见。 平安观点： 基 金 报 告 基 金 动 态 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 核心内容拆解：《征求意见稿》共七章五十七条，对衍生品交易和结算、衍生 品交易者、衍生品经营机构、衍生品市场基础设施、监督管理和法律责任等 进行了规定。（1）明确监管范围 ...

证券研究报告 基金双周报：ETF市场跟踪报告 证券分析师 | 陈 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | --- | --- | | 郭子睿 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 | | 任书康 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 | | 研究助理 | | | 高 越 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 | | 胡心怡 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 | 2026年1月19日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2 ETF市场回顾： • 收益表现与资金流向：截至1月16日，近两周ETF产品表现较好。国内主要宽基ETF中，科创100涨幅最大，行业与主题产品中，科技主题ETF涨幅最大。近两 周，国内主要宽基ETF中，科创100ETF资金净流入，沪深300ETF资金大幅净流出。2）近两周，周期、医药ETF资金加速流入，科技、消费、军工、金融地产 ETF资金转为净流入，红利、大制造其他ETF资金转为净流出，新能源ETF资金加速流出。债券ETF方面，信用债、国债、地方债ETF资金由净流入转为净流 出，可转债ETF资金转为净流入，政金债、短融 ...

证券研究报告 海外策略周报： 市场风偏短期受到压制 证券分析师 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001、BWH863 郝博韬 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521110001 2026年1月19日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 ※ 核心观点 2 • 海外市场方面，美国基本面韧性超预期，地缘扰动加剧，沃什接任美联储新任主席概率大涨，美股调整。具体看，股市方面，本周MSCI全 球股指上涨0.33%，美股下跌，欧洲、日本及新兴市场国家股市多数上涨。美股方面，标普500、纳指、道指分别下跌0.4%、0.7%、0.3%。 债市方面，本周10年期、2年期美债收益率分别上涨6bp、5bp至4.24%、3.59%。商品及外汇方面，本周美元指数上涨0.23%至99.37； COMEX黄金、白银，ICE布油分别上涨1.83%、12.73%、1.87%。港股整体上涨。恒生指数、恒生科技、恒生综合指数、恒生中国企业指 数、恒生港股通分别上涨2.3%、2.4%、2.6%、1.9%、2.7%。资金面上，南向资金流入规模回落，外资延续流出。 • 海外宏观层面，美国零售、就业超预期。1）美国2025年11月零售销售环比超预期增 ...

证券研究报告 金融行业周报 ——央行发布2025年金融统计数据报告，证监会就《衍生品交易监督管理办法》公开征求意见 证券分析师 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年1月19日 1 核心观点 央行发布2025年金融统计数据报告，证监会就《衍生品交易监督管理办法》公开征求意见 1、央行发布2025年金融统计数据报告。1月15日，中国人民银行发布2025年金融统计数据报告。拆分新增人民币贷款结构来看，企业端短贷、 中长贷均实现了同比多增，企业融资意愿略有改善，12月企业端贷款同比多增5800亿元，其中短贷同比多增3900亿元，中长贷同比多增2900亿 元。居民端信贷需求仍需政策呵护，12月居民信贷同比少增4416亿元，其中短贷同比少增1611亿元，中长贷同比少增2900亿元。从社融结构来 看，12月社融规模同比少增6462亿元，预计主要是与基数效应下政府债同比少增相关，25年12月政府债同比少增1.0 ...

宏 2026 年 1 月 19 日 报 告 中国宏观周报（2026 年 1 月第 3 周） 春节错位扰动消费出行 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 观 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，本周工业生产季节性调整，工业品价格存在分化，有色 金属强于黑色；内需线下出行热度回落，春节错位对消费出行存在扰动； 出口仍有韧性，1 月以来港口集装箱吞吐量处于高位，运价存在回升。 1. 工业：本周生产环比季节性调整。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、水 泥熟料产能利用率、部分化工品开工率环比回落，浮法玻璃开工率环比持 平，石油沥青开工率、主要钢材品种表观需求环比提升。2）中下游方面， 本周纺织聚酯开工率提升，织造业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎、全钢 胎开工率环比提升。据乘联会统计，1 月第一周，全国纯燃料轻型车同比 -63%，12 月同比-29%；混合动力与插混总体生产同比-17%，12 月同比- 2 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that since Q4 2025, the Hong Kong stock market has underperformed compared to the A-share market, with significant phase rotation characteristics observed [2][5] - The underperformance is attributed to liquidity pressure and a lack of strong industry momentum in the Hong Kong market, particularly in sectors that are thriving in the A-share market such as defense, non-ferrous metals, and telecommunications [8][21] - The report notes that the Hong Kong market is heavily concentrated in financial, software, internet, and pharmaceutical sectors, lacking representation in high-end manufacturing and defense industries, which are performing well in the A-share market [19][21] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong market could see a recovery in H1 2026 driven by three main factors: a potential dovish signal from the new Federal Reserve chairman, an expected recovery in profit growth for Hong Kong stocks, and accelerated commercialization of AI applications [30][31] - It is projected that the profit growth rate for Hong Kong stocks will enter a recovery phase in H1 2026, with expectations of a rebound in earnings for internet platforms and sustained high growth in sectors like information technology and healthcare [33][34] - The report emphasizes that the valuation of the Hong Kong technology sector is attractive compared to A-shares, with leading companies in Hong Kong nearing similar valuations to their US counterparts, while benefiting from a larger domestic market for AI applications [37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计6个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现5%以上) [22] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Qianwen APP has fully integrated into Alibaba's ecosystem, enhancing the application scenarios of AI large models. This integration allows for a significant upgrade from "chatting" to assisting users in "doing tasks," showcasing the improvement in model capabilities and the deepening of application scenarios [4][9] - The demonstration effect of the Qianwen APP is expected to accelerate the promotion of large model applications by domestic internet giants, thereby speeding up the application process of large models in China. This acceleration will create a substantial demand for inference computing power, further driving the development of China's domestic computing power industry chain [4][9] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - On January 15, 2026, Alibaba held a product launch for the Qianwen APP in Hangzhou, announcing its full integration with various Alibaba ecosystem services such as Taobao, Alipay, and Fliggy. This integration enables AI shopping functions like ordering takeout and booking flights, marking a global first [4][7] - The Qianwen APP will launch over 400 AI task functions, positioning it as the first AI assistant capable of completing complex real-life tasks, transitioning the AI industry from "chatting" to "doing" [7][9] Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index rose by 3.82% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.57%, resulting in a 4.39 percentage point advantage [13] - As of the last trading day of the week, the overall P/E ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) for the computer industry was 61.4 times, with 249 out of 359 A-share component stocks rising in price [15] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continuous attention to investment opportunities in the AI theme, particularly in AI computing power and AI algorithms and applications. Specific companies recommended include: 1. AI Computing Power: Haiguang Information, Longxin Zhongke, Industrial Fulian, Inspur Information, Unisplendour, Zhongke Shuguang, Digital China, and Deepin Technology [18] 2. AI Algorithms and Applications: Strongly recommended are Hengsheng Electronics, Zhongke Chuangda, and Shengshi Technology, with additional recommendations for Daotong Technology, Kingsoft Office, iFLYTEK, and others [18]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [38] Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue and gross margin exceeded guidance, with a significant increase in capital expenditure expected for 2026. In Q4 2025, TSMC achieved revenue of NT$10,460.9 billion (up 20.5% YoY, up 5.7% QoQ), translating to USD 33.73 billion, surpassing the previous guidance of USD 32.2-33.4 billion. The gross margin was 62.3%, up 2.8 percentage points from Q3 [2][5] - For the full year 2025, TSMC reported revenue of NT$38,090.5 billion (up 31.6% YoY), with a gross margin of 59.9% (up 3.8 percentage points YoY) and a net profit of NT$17,178.8 billion (up 46.4% YoY) [2][5] - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 was USD 40.9 billion, with expectations for 2026 to reach USD 52-56 billion (median of USD 54 billion), a substantial increase of 32% YoY [2][8] Summary by Sections TSMC Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, TSMC's revenue was NT$10,460.9 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% and a net profit of NT$5,057.4 billion [5][6] - For the entire year of 2025, TSMC's revenue was NT$38,090.5 billion, with a gross margin of 59.9% and a net profit of NT$17,178.8 billion [5][6] Revenue Structure - In 2025, TSMC's advanced process (7nm and below) accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue, with 3nm at 24%, 5nm at 36%, and 7nm at 14% [2][5] - By application, TSMC's revenue from HPC, smartphones, IoT, and automotive grew by 48%, 11%, 15%, and 34% YoY, respectively, making up 58%, 29%, 5%, and 5% of total revenue [2][5] Market Trends - DRAM sellers are hoarding inventory, leading to a 10% increase in mainstream DDR4 prices. The average price of mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s rose by 9.64% due to suppliers and traders adopting a strategy of withholding stock [12][13] - The demand for AI-related power ICs is growing, and major manufacturers are reducing production, which is expected to lead to price increases in the eight-inch wafer foundry market [20]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The recent reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points is expected to help reduce storage costs and accelerate inventory clearance in commercial properties. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been lowered to 30%, which is anticipated to further decrease the cost of home ownership for residents [3] - The focus on Hong Kong property companies is increasing, with expectations for the Hong Kong real estate market to continue its upward trend in 2026. Key companies such as Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land have seen cumulative stock price increases of 18.9%, 12.4%, and 13.3% respectively [3] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant stock price and performance elasticity for major Hong Kong property companies during the market recovery phase, citing historical performance data from previous market cycles [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities decreased by 2.6% week-on-week, with a total of 12,000 units sold. The average daily transaction volume for new homes in January (up to the 16th) showed a year-on-year decline of 26.8% and a month-on-month decline of 46.4% [4] - The inventory of commercial properties in 16 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current inventory of 90.74 million square meters and a clearance cycle of 21.1 months [12] - The real estate sector saw a decline of 3.52% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.57%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 60.05, placing it in the 93.83 percentile of the past five years [24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: 1. Companies with light historical burdens and optimized inventory structures, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development, are expected to benefit from the "good housing" initiative [3] 2. Hong Kong property companies benefiting from market stabilization, including Sun Hung Kai Properties and Henderson Land Development [3] 3. Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, such as China Resources Mixc Lifestyle and Poly Property [3]