行业点评 行 业 报 告 单月销售降幅收窄，开竣工增速反弹 强于大市( 维持) 行情走势图 证券分析师 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 郑茜文 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090003 ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.cn 事项： 国家统计局公布2025年1-9月全国房地产开发投资及销售数据。 平安观点： 房地产 2025年10月20日 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业点评*房地产*融资环境延续宽松， 去库存成效持续显现*强于大市20250915 【平安证券】行业点评*房地产*待售面积持续收缩， 国内贷款延续正增*强于大市20250815 行 业 点 评 研 究 报 告 证 券 单月销售降幅收窄，待售面积持续收缩：9月全国商品房销售面积8531 万平米，同比下降10.5%，降幅较8月收窄0.01个百分点；销售金额8025 亿元，同比下降11.8%，降幅较8月收窄2.2个百分点。1-9月全国商品房 销售面积、销售金额累计同比下降5.5%、7.9%，降幅较1-8月扩大0.8 个、0.6个百分点，但分别较20 ...

金融行业周报 ——央行发布前三季度金融统计数据报告，证监会修订《上市公司治理准则》 证券分析师 证券研究报告 2、中国证监会修订发布《上市公司治理准则》。为贯彻落实《国务院关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》《中 共中央办公厅 国务院办公厅关于完善中国特色现代企业制度的意见》，进一步规范上市公司董事、高级管理人员和控股股东、实际控制 人行为，提升上市公司治理水平，中国证监会修订了《上市公司治理准则》。本次围绕健全董事高管激励约束机制，规范控股股东、实 际控制人行为等方面进行修订，具有较强问题导向，标志着上市公司治理监管制度的进一步升级，为提升上市公司治理水平夯实了制度 根基，凸显了规范的公司治理在提高上市公司质量、防范打击违法违规、保护投资者权益方面的重要基础作用。 王维逸S1060520040001（证券投资咨询） 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年10月20日 1 核心观 ...

宏 2025 年 10 月 20 日 中国宏观周报（2025 年 10 月第 2 周） 部分区域出口运价回升 证券分析师 平安观点： 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 从高频数据观察，本周中下游生产较月初恢复，房地产销售跌幅收窄，假 期后线下出行热度有所回落，工业品期货价格调整。尽管中国出口集装箱 运价指数本周回落，但领先总体运价的上海和宁波出口运价进一步回升。 1. 工业：中下游生产恢复。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、水泥熟料产 能利用率边际回落，石油沥青开工率、浮法玻璃开工率以及钢材表观需求 提升。2）中下游方面，本周纺织聚酯开工率、织造业开工率边际回升；汽 车全钢胎开工率、半钢胎开工率均有反弹。 2. 地产：新房成交边际提升。1）销售方面，本周（截至 10 月 17 日）30 大 中城市新房销售面积同比-20.4%，增速较上周提升 10.8 个百分点；10 月 以来，30 大中城市新房销售面积同比-25.4%，较上月回落。2）价格方面， 截至 10 月 6 日，近四周二手房出售挂牌价指数环比-0.85%。 3. 内需：假期后线下出行热度回落，10 月以来汽车零售、快递揽收同比略有 ...

海外宏观周报 金价再创新高 海外宏观 2025 年 10 月 20 日 证券分析师 截止 10 月 17 日当周：美股、欧股温和反弹，日股、港股下跌，美债和 美元窄幅波动，金价大涨，油价继续承压。在美国政府持续停摆、贸易 政策不确定性延续的背景下，叠加美国地区银行信贷风险暴露，全球风 险偏好仍受压制，全球股票、原油等风险资产仍受冲击，金价受益于避 险需求再创新高。 风险提示：特朗普政策风险超预期，美国滞胀程度超预期，全球金融市场波 动超预期，国际地缘局势超预期等。 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 范城恺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 海外经济政策 1) 全球：10 月 14 日，IMF 发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，预计 2025年世界经济将增长 3.2%，较今年 7月预测值上调0.2个百分点。报 告指出，美国关税的急剧上升正在成为主导全球不确定性的最重要因 素。IMF 预计，美国 2025 ...

2025年10月20日 海康威视(002415.SZ) 三季报符合预期，继续推进创新业务发展 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:33.06元 公 司 报 告 主要数据 | 行业 | 电子 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.hikvision.com | | 大股东/持股 | 中电海康集团有限公司/37.28% | | 实际控制人 | 国务院国有资产监督管理委员会 | | 总股本(百万股) | 9,165 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 9,046 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | | | 总市值(亿元) | 3,030 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 2,991 | | 每股净资产(元) | 8.55 | | 资产负债率(%) | 33.8 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 杨钟 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060525080001 | | | yangzhong035@pingan.com.cn | | 徐勇 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060519090004 | | | XUYONG318@pingan.com.cn | 事项： 公 司 公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased, leading to a continued downward trend in oil prices. WTI crude futures fell by 1.00% and Brent crude futures by 1.21% during the period from October 10 to October 17, 2025 [6]. - OPEC's latest monthly market report maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, predicting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [6]. - The domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through upstream and downstream integration and diversifying their oil and gas sources [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Geopolitical tensions have decreased, resulting in a downward trend in oil prices. The easing of risks is reflected in the signing of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and calls for further implementation of the ceasefire by the UN [6]. - The U.S. government is facing a budget impasse, which is impacting economic operations and creating uncertainty regarding fiscal policies [6]. - The report suggests that while short-term oil price risks may persist, the long-term outlook remains anchored by fundamental demand growth [7]. Fluorochemicals - The supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is tight, leading to continued price increases. R32 refrigerant prices remain high, and R134a prices are also on the rise due to supply constraints and increasing domestic demand [6][7]. - The report highlights that the production of second-generation refrigerants is declining, while third-generation refrigerants have limited quota increases, stabilizing market competition [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor sector is experiencing an upward cycle, supported by improving fundamentals and domestic substitution trends. The report recommends focusing on companies like Nanda Optoelectronics and Shanghai Xinyang [7].

公 司 报 告 2025年10月19日 三棵树(603737.SH) 业绩增长亮眼，毛利率与现金流改善 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:46.28元 主要数据 | 行业 | 建材 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.3treesgroup.com | | 大股东/持股 | 洪杰/67.02% | | 实际控制人 | 洪杰 | | 总股本(百万股) | 738 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 738 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | | | 总市值(亿元) | 341 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 341 | | 每股净资产(元) | 4.40 | | 资产负债率(%) | 75.8 | 行情走势图 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 相关研究报告 【平安证券】三棵树（603737.SH）*首次覆盖报告* 民族涂料龙头，零售转型突围*推荐20250909 证券分析师 郑南宏 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521120001 ZHENGNANHONG873@pingan.com.cn 事项： 公司发布2025年三季报，前三季度实现营收93.9亿元，同比增长2.7% ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the Fourth Plenary Session's policy guidance, suggesting that market fluctuations in the short term do not alter the mid-term upward trend [2] - It highlights the structural differentiation in domestic economic data, with better-than-expected export growth of 8.3% in September, while credit growth is slowing [2][3] - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors, industries benefiting from policy support, and consumer sectors with low valuations [2] Recent Developments - **Trade Data**: September exports increased by 8.3%, with significant growth in exports to Africa, Latin America, and the EU, particularly in integrated circuits and ships [3] - **Financial Data**: New social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, indicating a slowdown in credit growth [4] - **Price Data**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% [5] Policy Tracking - Recent policy adjustments include the expansion of the Hainan duty-free shopping policy, allowing new categories of goods and adjusting the age limit for duty-free shopping [6] - The government is focusing on enhancing domestic demand and stabilizing foreign trade and investment through various measures [6] Market Performance - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the banking and coal sectors leading gains, while the overall market saw a decline in major indices [12][13] - The report notes that the market's short-term volatility is influenced by external uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. government shutdowns and U.S.-China relations [2][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong investment rating for the social services industry, particularly focusing on the OTA sector [1]. Core Insights - The overall trend in tourism is upward, with domestic travel showing significant growth. In the first half of 2025, domestic residents made 3.285 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and spent 3.15 trillion yuan, up 15.2% [5][10]. - Major OTA platforms like Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel have reported strong performance, with robust growth in core services such as accommodation and transportation bookings [10][13]. - The competitive landscape in the OTA market is characterized by a few dominant players, with Trip.com leading and several strong competitors like Tongcheng and Feizhu [16][41]. - The OTA industry has established significant barriers to entry through strong supply chain relationships and consumer loyalty, particularly for leading companies like Trip.com [20][70]. - New consumer demands are being met by OTAs through AI tools and innovative product offerings, catering to both younger travelers and the elderly demographic [87][80]. Summary by Sections 2025H1 Tourism Market Recovery - The tourism market is recovering, with OTAs outperforming expectations. Domestic travel is on the rise, with significant increases in both the number of trips and spending [5][10]. OTA's Role in Connecting Supply and Demand - OTAs effectively link fragmented upstream suppliers (hotels, airlines) with diverse consumer demands, creating a strong two-sided scale effect [20][28]. Competitive Landscape and Barriers - The OTA market has evolved into a "one strong, many strong" competitive structure, with Trip.com as the leader and others like Tongcheng and Meituan following closely [41][46]. Adapting to New Consumer Needs - OTAs are adapting to new consumer preferences by offering experience-based travel products and leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency [80][87]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading OTA companies like Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing recovery in tourism and changing consumer preferences [10][86].

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has achieved high-quality completion of most policy goals, including economic growth, labor productivity, and R&D investment, with significant progress in urbanization and life expectancy indicators [9][10][11] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical period for achieving Chinese-style modernization, focusing on solidifying the foundation for modernization and comprehensive development [7][8] Group 2 - Four industrial clues are identified for the "15th Five-Year Plan": fostering new productive forces, expanding domestic demand, advancing the construction of a unified national market, and enhancing resource utilization and protection [4][12][16] - The macroeconomic environment shows new momentum in domestic growth, with a need to address insufficient effective demand, emphasizing the importance of technology innovation and expanding domestic consumption [13][14] Group 3 - The focus on new productive forces includes the development of emerging industries, traditional industry upgrades, and the stimulation of digital economy innovation [4][12][18] - Expanding domestic demand involves promoting consumption through initiatives like "old-for-new" exchanges and investing in human capital, alongside infrastructure investment to support urban renewal [4][12][16] Group 4 - The construction of a unified national market aims to reduce internal competition and enhance efficiency in sectors like new energy, traditional cycles, and consumer goods [4][12][16] - Resource utilization and protection strategies emphasize the development of the marine economy and the safeguarding of strategic mineral resources [4][12][16] Group 5 - The market outlook suggests that technology innovation sectors such as TMT, new energy, and biomedicine will continue to be key investment themes, supported by policy and industry growth [4][12][16] - Historical analysis indicates that A-share market trends around the announcements of previous five-year plans show a pattern of initial growth followed by sector rotation and differentiation [4][12][16]