证券研究报告 海外MNC动态跟踪系列（十七） 辉瑞发布2025Q3财报：Nectin-4 ADC表现亮眼 医药 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 医药团队 分析师： 叶寅 投资咨询资格编号:S1060514100001 邮箱：YEYIN757@PINGAN.COM.CN 韩盟盟 投资咨询资格编号:S1060519060002 邮箱：HANMENGMENG005@PINGAN.COM.CN 张梦鸽 投资咨询资格编号:S1060525070003 邮箱：ZHANGMENGGE752@PINGAN.COM.CN 2025年11月20日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 行业观点 2 事件：辉瑞公布2025Q3业绩，Q3营收由去年同期的177亿美元降至166.5亿美元，同比下降7%（全文均以Oper增速为口径，剔除汇 率影响），主要受新冠产品（Paxlovid和Comirnaty）需求下滑拖累。尽管如此，公司上调了其全年盈利预测，因其非新冠业务增长 抵消整体营收滑坡。2025年前三季度总营收450.22亿美元，同比下降2%。 核心产品销售分析：肿瘤板块是三个板块增速最快板块，成为辉瑞业绩增长引擎。扛起肿瘤业务大旗的还是乳腺癌 ...

证券研究报告 大宗商品框架系列（二） 解构黑金链：下行周期中的新破局 煤炭 强于大市（维持） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 • 定价框架：黑色金属产业链在供需和价格上具有高联动性，而供需关系是决定商品价格的主因。供给端，中长期来看，作为步入成熟期的传统周 期行业，政策是决定供给变化的主要因素之一，当前反内卷背景下，煤炭反超产、矿山安全严监管、提高钢铁产能置换比例等措施在一定程度上 限制了供给增速；此外，黑色金属作为长久期资产，刚性需求支撑下，整个成熟期跨期较长，随着行业集中度提升、稳定现金流积累，头部企业 有望在该阶段完成资源再整合、估值再提升。需求端，煤焦钢终端对应的建筑、制造业等是决定国民经济的基石产业，因此经济环境和终端产业 政策导向是影响煤焦钢中长期需求增速的关键；随着我国制造业高速发展和产业链出海布局，钢铁对地产的依赖弱化，制造业用钢占比提升，同 时新兴市场对我国钢材进口需求高速增长，钢厂也逐渐转产附加值更高的板卷等品种。上下游供需博弈最直观的结果是库存变动，库存在揭示当 前实际基本面的同时也暗示着市场对未来供需格局的预期，因此库存的动态变化常被作为商品价格的前瞻指标 。利润端，黑色金属产业链 ...

非银行金融 行业点评 中金拟吸收合并东兴+信达，证券业供给侧改革加速 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业深度报告-非银行金融-险资举牌 研究暨 2024 年报分析：风起资产端-强于大市 20250403 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-优化险资权益 资产监管比例，发挥"耐心资本"优势-强于大市 20250409 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-深化个险营销 体制改革，头部险企具备高质量发展优势-强于大市 20250420 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-规范万能险经 营，推动行业健康发展、回归保障本源-强于大市 20250427 【平安证券】行业半年度策略报告-非银行金融-高 质量发展引领价值重估，头部公司更具韧性——非 银金融行业 2025 年中期策略报告-强于大市 20250701 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-国有险企长周 期考核再加强，助力长期稳健投资-强于大市 20250713 证券分析师 | 王维逸 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520040001 | | | BQC673 | | | WANGWEIYI059@ping ...

海外宏观 2025 年 11 月 20 日 宏观深度报告 美联储"第三使命"：背景、经验、争议与影响 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG934@pingan.com.cn | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU15@pingan.com.cn | | 范城恺 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523010001 | | | FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 深 度 报 告 宏 观 动 态 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 一、 美联储"第三使命"的讨论背景。1977 年《联邦储备法》明确美联储的法 定使命为"有效促进充分就业、物价稳定和适度的长期利率"。但美联储官 网与 FOMC 声明长期只强调"双重使命"。2025 年 9 月 3 日，新任理事史 蒂芬·米兰在国会完整引用法定表述，引发市场关注；9 月 3-11 日，10-30 年期美 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) [1][6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi achieved a revenue of 113.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with an adjusted net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-on-year [3]. - The automotive business turned profitable in Q3, with a delivery volume of 108,796 units, a year-on-year increase of 173.4%, and automotive revenue reaching 28.3 billion yuan, up 197.9% year-on-year [5]. - The smartphone business faced pressure from rising storage costs, with Q3 smartphone shipments exceeding 43 million units, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, and revenue of 46 billion yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year [5]. - The IoT and consumer products segment saw a revenue increase of 5.6% year-on-year, with smart home appliances experiencing a decline due to reduced government subsidies [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Xiaomi are set at 365.9 billion yuan for 2024, 471.1 billion yuan for 2025, and 601.1 billion yuan for 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.0%, 28.7%, and 27.6% respectively [4][11]. - Net profit forecasts are adjusted to 44.1 billion yuan for 2025, 52.4 billion yuan for 2026, and 65.3 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [6][11]. - The gross margin for the automotive business reached 25.5% in Q3, while the smartphone business gross margin was 11.1%, down approximately 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Key Financial Ratios - The report highlights a projected return on equity (ROE) of 19.0% for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.9 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 4.2 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The rapid development of new energy sources poses challenges to the power system's regulation and support capabilities, necessitating a transition from a "source-grid-load" model to a "source-grid-load-storage" model, with energy storage becoming a crucial foundation for the new power system [2][11] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly due to energy security and carbon neutrality strategies, with China's wind and solar installed capacity projected to continue increasing [2][30] - As of September 2025, China's new energy storage capacity has exceeded 100GW, representing over 40% of the global total, but the penetration rate remains low compared to the overall power system, indicating substantial growth potential [2][41] Summary by Sections Concept - Energy storage refers to devices that convert and store electrical energy, acting as a "reservoir" in the power system. It helps balance real-time energy production and consumption, improving power quality and efficiency [7][9] Logic - The demand for energy storage is driven by the need for energy security and carbon neutrality, with significant growth expected in wind and solar installations. By the end of 2024, China's wind and solar installed capacity is projected to reach 1.4 billion kW, accounting for 42% of total power generation capacity [2][19] - The penetration of new energy storage is still low, with only 2.7% of total installed capacity and 5.9% of new energy capacity as of September 2025, indicating ample room for growth [2][41] Technology Routes and Installation Status - The report outlines various technology routes for energy storage, including pumped hydro storage and electrochemical storage, with lithium batteries being the primary growth driver. The current installed capacity of new energy storage in China is substantial but still small relative to the overall power system [3][41] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the total installed capacity of wind and solar will continue to grow, and the penetration rate of energy storage has significant room for improvement. It recommends investing in leading companies in the energy storage sector, such as Sunshine Power and Haibo Technology, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [2][45]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in investing in the cyclical industry due to its high volatility and low long-term compound returns [2][16][18] Core Insights - The cyclical industry, which includes coal, steel, petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals, is closely linked to macroeconomic performance, with nominal GDP growth serving as a synchronous or lagging indicator, while new social financing growth is a leading indicator [2][15] - Commodity prices are direct indicators of the cyclical industry's prosperity, typically leading or synchronizing with stock price bottoms but lagging at peaks [2][35] - Market sentiment is assessed through valuation extremes and trading volume, with high trading volumes indicating potential market reversals [2][40] Summary by Sections Industry Classification - The cyclical sector encompasses coal, steel, petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, with a total market capitalization share of 13.5% as of October 2025 [10][8] Market Characteristics - The cyclical industry exhibits high volatility and lower long-term returns, necessitating a focus on timing for investments [16][18] - Historical data shows that significant excess returns in the cyclical sector often coincide with periods of rising commodity prices, particularly in 2007, 2009, 2016, and 2021 [19][20] Industry Prosperity - Policy changes significantly impact the cyclical industry's performance, with supply-side constraints playing a crucial role [23][26] - Commodity prices are critical indicators of industry health, with manufacturing PMI and the South China index serving as leading or synchronous macro indicators [35][36] Market Sentiment - Valuation extremes signal potential market reversals, while trading volume and turnover rates provide insights into market participation [2][40] - The cyclical sector's performance is influenced by overall market risk appetite, with high-dividend sectors like coal and steel gaining traction during defensive market phases [2][40] Outlook - The cyclical sector's investment value is expected to improve with a recovery in sentiment and economic conditions, particularly in non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel [2][19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [44] Core Viewpoints - AstraZeneca's Q3 2025 financial report shows total revenue of $43.236 billion for the first nine months, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with product revenue at $43.143 billion, also up 11%. R&D expenses reached $10.370 billion, reflecting a 16% increase [5][12] - The company maintains a strong market position in lung and breast cancer through several key products, with significant revenue contributions from Tagrisso, Calquence, and Imfinzi [5][26] - AstraZeneca's pipeline is expected to see multiple key catalysts in 2026 across oncology, respiratory, and rare diseases [4][35] Summary by Sections Part 1: Q3 2025 Financial Overview and Key Events - AstraZeneca's revenue distribution shows the U.S. market contributing $18.517 billion (up 11%) and emerging markets $11.657 billion (up 13%), with China accounting for $5.279 billion (up 5%) [12] - The oncology segment remains the largest, contributing $18.591 billion (up 16%) to total revenue [12] Part 2: Core Product Sales Analysis - Tagrisso generated $1.864 billion (up 10%), Calquence $916 million (up 11%), and Imfinzi $1.601 billion (up 31%) [26] - Enhertu's revenue reached $714 million (up 39%) after being included in China's National Reimbursement Drug List [26] Part 3: Future Pipeline Milestones - Key trials in oncology include AVANZAR, TROPION-Lung07, and EMERALD-3, focusing on various lung cancer treatments [35][38] - In the respiratory field, trials like OBERON/TITANIA are targeting uncontrolled COPD [35][38] Part 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies involved in ADCs and TSLP-related targets, highlighting the rapid growth of Tezspire, which achieved $287 million in revenue (up 47%) [42]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Jacobiopharma-B (1167.HK) [1]. Core Views - Jacobiopharma focuses on innovative drug development targeting difficult-to-drug targets, with a strong pipeline and comprehensive patent strategy to build competitive barriers [6][7]. - The company has established strategic partnerships to enhance drug development and commercialization, particularly with AbbVie and Elysium [6][20]. - The KRAS G12C inhibitor, Goleirase, has been approved for marketing in China, and the company is actively pursuing further clinical trials and partnerships to maximize its market potential [6][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Focus on Difficult-to-Drug Targets - Jacobiopharma aims to develop globally innovative drugs targeting difficult-to-drug cancer targets, with a management team experienced in drug development and international collaboration [13][17]. - The company's revenue primarily comes from licensing agreements, with stable funding supporting long-term development [20][24]. - The company has a solid cash position of 1.34 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025, which supports its future expenditures [20][24]. 2. Coverage of Different KRAS Mutations - KRAS plays a critical role in cell growth and survival signaling, and its mutations are linked to cancer progression [30]. - The KRAS G12C inhibitor, Goleirase, has been approved in China, and the company has formed a strategic partnership with Elysium for its commercialization [36][39]. - The company is also developing a pan-KRAS inhibitor, JAB-23E73, which is expected to provide broader coverage of KRAS mutations and address resistance issues [46]. 3. Key Assumptions and Investment Rating - The report projects revenues of 0.52 billion yuan in 2025, 0.74 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.15 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting the company's growth trajectory [8][12]. - The company is expected to continue advancing its research and development projects while maintaining controlled operating expenses [6][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [42] Core Insights - Novartis reported a Q3 2025 net sales of $13.909 billion, a 7% increase year-on-year, with a free cash flow of $6.217 billion, up 4% [4][11] - The total net sales for the first three quarters of 2025 reached $41.196 billion, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [4][11] - Significant growth was observed across major therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular, immunology, neuroscience, and oncology, with ten blockbuster products exceeding $1 billion in cumulative sales [4][11] Summary by Sections Part 1: Q3 2025 Financial Overview and Key Events - Novartis achieved a core operating income of $5.460 billion in Q3 2025, a 6% increase year-on-year, with a core margin of 39.3% [8][11] - The oncology segment generated $12.574 billion in revenue, marking a 20% increase, while the cardiovascular-renal-metabolic segment saw a 19% increase to $7.358 billion [11] Part 2: Core Product Sales Analysis - Kisqali (ribociclib) generated $1.329 billion in Q3 2025, a 68% increase, maintaining a market share of 48% in new-to-brand prescriptions [18] - In the nuclear medicine sector, Pluvicto and Lutathera combined generated $2.002 billion, with Pluvicto expanding its market share in pre-chemotherapy mCRPC patients [30] Part 3: Future Pipeline Milestones - Novartis has completed most clinical milestones for 2025, with two expected in Q4: initiation of clinical data for GIA632 and regulatory submission for Pluvicto in mHSPC [35][36] Part 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic nuclear medicine companies such as Yuan Da Pharmaceutical, China Dongfang, and Hengrui Medicine, as the domestic nuclear medicine market is expected to accelerate [40]