美联储议息会议：降息取决于通胀进展 证券分析师 平安观点： 债 券 报 告 债券 2026 年 3 月 19 日 美联储那些事儿 债券点评 | 图表1 | 鲍威尔发布会表态要点 | 鲍威尔答记者问要点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 我们认为通胀会继续回落，虽然程度不及预期。年中可能会看到关税的通胀影响开始降低。如果看不到 | 通胀方面的进展，就不会降息。 | | | 货币政策 | 保持利率略微紧缩（mildly restrictive）很重要。 | | | 美联储上调核心通胀预期，有部分原因是油价冲击，另一部分原因是美联储尚未看到核心商品通胀的明 | 显降温。 | | | 新的就业盈亏平衡点似乎非常低。 | | | | 经济状况 | 原油冲击对经济的影响可能大可能小，无法判断。油价冲击会导致支出和就业的下行压力和通胀的上行 | 压力。 | | 美国是能源净出口国，如果油价上涨导致生产商增加钻探，那么其对就业、经济的拖累作用会被对冲 | （offset）。 | | | 对于美联储将长期GDP增速从1.8%上修至2%，鲍威尔认为这确实反映了生产率进步，但并非是因为AI； | 可能由于疫情带来的节 ...

基金 2026 年 3 月 19 日 跨境投资洞察系列报告之四： 综合宏观、技术指标的港股择时框架与量化策略 相关研究报告 【平安证券】跨境投资洞察系列报告之三：港股 择时宏观框架与量化策略*20251009 【平安证券】量化资产配置系列报告之九：基于 基本面、市场情绪与动量因子的股债择时策略运 用*20240521 证券分析师 | 郭子睿 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520070003 | | | GUOZIRUI807@pingan.com.cn | | 任书康 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060525050001 | | | RENSHUKANG722@pingan.com.cn | | 陈瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060524120003 | | | CHENYAO370@pingan.com.cn | 胡心怡 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124030069 HUXINYI184@pingan.com.cn 高越 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124070014 GAOYUE384@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 基 ...

房地产 2026 年 03 月 18 日 贝壳-W(2423.HK) 多元业务稳健向好，持续加大股东回报 推荐（维持） 股价：43.76 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 房地产 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | inv estors.ke.com | | 大股东/持股 | Propitious Global/23.6% | | 实际控制人 | 创始人团队 | | 总股本(百万股) | 3529.62 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 0 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 3391.02 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1360.34 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 0 | | 每股净资产(元) | 18.95 | | 资产负债率(%) | 42.98 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】贝壳-W（2423.HK）*季报点评*提效降本 初显成效，积极回购彰显信心*推荐20251111 证券分析师 | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514080002 | | | BQV514 | | | YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Viewpoints - The three ministries have launched a pilot program for comprehensive hydrogen energy applications, creating new opportunities for the green hydrogen sector [4][8] - The pilot program expands application scenarios from fuel cell vehicles to multiple industrial fields, encouraging innovation in hydrogen energy applications [5][8] - The hydrogen energy industry in China has made significant progress, with a complete supply chain established and a target to reduce hydrogen prices to below 25 yuan per kilogram by 2030 [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The pilot program includes five major application scenarios: fuel cell vehicles, green ammonia, hydrogen-based chemical raw materials, hydrogen metallurgy, and hydrogen blending combustion [5] - By the end of 2025, it is expected that nearly 40,000 fuel cell vehicles will be sold, with 574 hydrogen refueling stations built, and hydrogen refueling capacity exceeding 360 tons per day [7] Market Potential - The overall goal is to further reduce costs and promote the industrialization of hydrogen energy, aiming for a doubling of fuel cell vehicle ownership by 2030 [7][8] - The hydrogen energy industry is entering a critical phase of rapid scaling and technological advancement, with the potential to become a new economic growth point [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the electrolyzer and testing equipment sectors, such as Huadian Technology and Kewell, as well as leading participants in the green hydrogen and green alcohol sectors like China Power Investment and China Tianying [8]

公 司 报 告 房地产 2026年03月18日 招商蛇口(001979.SZ) 拿地积极聚焦，销售财务稳健 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:9.74元 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】招商蛇口（001979.SZ）*季报点评*销 售业绩平稳，拿地积极聚焦*推荐20251031 证券分析师 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 事项： 公司公布2025年年报，全年实现营业收入1547.3亿元，同比下降13.5%，归母 净利润10.2亿元，同比下降74.6%，位于业绩预告区间；拟向全体股东每10股 派发现金红利0.51元（含税）。 平安观点： 评 研 究 报 告 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 郑茜文 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090003 ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.cn 年 报 点 证 券 主要数据 行业 房地产 公司网址 www.cmsk1979.com 大股东/持股 招商局集团有限公司/51.10% 实际控制人 国务院国有资产监督管理委员会 总股本(百万股) 9,016 流通A股(百万股) 8,414 流通B/H股(百万股) 总市 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the transformer industry, particularly for Chinese companies, indicating a new era of volume and price increases in exports [2][50]. Core Insights - The demand for electricity is surging due to the data center construction wave, leading to both existing and new demand for transformers. Global data center electricity consumption is expected to double from 460 TWh in 2022 to over 1000 TWh by 2026, making data centers a key driver of electricity demand growth in various regions [3][10]. - The aging power grid in Europe and the U.S. is prompting a significant upgrade, with many transformers nearing the end of their service life. Approximately 55% of U.S. transmission transformers have been in service for over 33 years, leading to a supply shortage expected to last until 2030 [3][24]. - Chinese transformer manufacturers are positioned to benefit from this situation, with a complete and efficient supply chain that includes raw materials and production capabilities. By 2025, China's transformer export value is projected to reach 646 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 35.8% [3][38]. - Chinese companies are actively expanding overseas, utilizing strategies such as "core components from China + regional assembly" to navigate trade barriers and enhance their global market share [3][39]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Surge in Electricity Demand from Data Centers - The report highlights that the construction of data centers is leading to an explosive increase in electricity demand, necessitating higher specifications for transformers to ensure stable power supply [3][10]. - The extreme requirements for power supply stability in data centers, particularly for AI infrastructure, are driving the demand for high-quality transformers [3][11]. Section 2: Chinese Companies in the Transformer Industry - Chinese companies dominate the transformer industry, with a complete supply chain that allows for self-sufficiency in key materials. By 2025, China's oriented silicon steel production capacity is expected to reach 4.51 million tons, accounting for 56% of global capacity [3][30]. - The export structure of Chinese transformers is improving, with the average export price per unit increasing from approximately 158,000 RMB in 2024 to 205,000 RMB in 2025, indicating a shift towards higher-end products [3][38]. Section 3: Companies Related to Transformer Exports - Key players in the transformer industry include TBEA, which leads in high-voltage transformers and has a significant share in overseas markets, and other companies like Suyuan Electric and Jinpan Technology, which are expanding their international presence [3][46][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that can quickly adapt to overseas infrastructure demands, possess core high-voltage technology, and maintain stable profit margins amid raw material price fluctuations [3][50].

行业点评 NBV 高增 COR 承压，阳光 2025 业绩总体稳健 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 相关研究报告 行 业 报 告 非银行金融 【平安证券】行业点评*金融*从金融视角看《2026 年政府工作报告》：调结构与防风险并重，资本市场 改革深化*强于大市 20260305 证券分析师 | 李冰婷 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520040002 | | | LIBINGTING419@pingan.com.cn | | 许淼 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060525020001 | | | XUMIAO533@pingan.com.cn | 事项： 阳 光 保 险 发 布 2025 年 业 绩 公 告 ， 2025 年 总 保 费 收 入 1507.2 亿 元 （YoY+17.4%）、保险服务收入 650.7 亿元（YoY+1.7%），归母净利润 63.1 亿 元（YoY+15.7%），集团 EV 约 1207.8 亿元（较上年末+4.3%）。公司拟派发 2025 年现金股息每股 0.19 元（含税），合计 21.9 亿元。 平安观点： 行 业 点 评 ...

强烈推荐( 维持) 股价:405元 公 司 报 告 2026年03月18日 电力设备及新能源 宁德时代(300750.SZ) 业绩表现亮眼，全球布局深化 主要数据 | 行业 | 电力设备及新能源 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.catl.com | | 大股东/持股 | 厦门瑞庭投资有限公司/22.45% | | 实际控制人 | 曾毓群 | | 总股本(百万股) | 4,564 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 4,257 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | 156 | | 总市值(亿元) | 18,742 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 17,239 | | 每股净资产(元) | 73.86 | | 资产负债率(%) | 61.9 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 事项： 公司发布2025年年度报告。2025年，公司实现营业收入4,237.02亿元，同比 增长17.04%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润722.01亿元，同比增长 42.28%；扣除非经常性损益的净利润为645.08亿元，同比增长43.37%。公司 2025 年度利润分配预案为：向全体股东每10股派发现金分红69.57元（ ...

证券研究报告 恒瑞、罗氏、康哲药业新药/新适应症国内获批， 多款创新药迎来研发进展 生物医药行业强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所生物医药团队 分析师： 叶寅 投资咨询资格编号:S1060514100001邮箱：YEYIN757@PINGAN.COM.CN 倪亦道 投资咨询资格编号:S1060518070001邮箱：NIYIDAO242@PINGAN.COM.CN 韩盟盟 投资咨询资格编号:S1060519060002邮箱：HANMENGMENG005@PINGAN.COM.CN 裴晓鹏 投资咨询资格编号:S1060523090002邮箱：PEIXIAOPENG719@PINGAN.COM.CN 何敏秀 投资咨询资格编号:S1060524030001邮箱：HEMINXIU894@PINGAN.COM.CN 王钰畅 投资咨询资格编号:S1060524090001邮箱：WANGYUCHANG804@PINGAN.COM.CN 曹艳凯 投资咨询资格编号:S1060524120001邮箱：CAOYANKAI947@PINGAN.COM.CN 张梦鸽 投资咨询资格编号:S1060525070003邮箱：ZHANGMENG ...

银行 2026 年 3 月 17 日 浦发银行(600000.SH) 数智转型赋能质效提升，化风险轻装上阵 推荐（首次） 股价：10.29 元 平安观点： | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业净收入(百万元) | 171,025 | 168,690 | 171,916 | 180,807 | 188,821 | | YOY(%) | -8.5 | -1.4 | 1.9 | 5.2 | 4.4 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 36,702 | 45,257 | 49,993 | 55,387 | 60,988 | | YOY(%) | -28.3 | 23.3 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 10.1 | | ROE(%) | 6.1 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | | EPS(摊薄/元) | 1.25 | 1.35 | 1.49 | 1.65 | 1.81 | | P/E(倍) | 8.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 5.7 | | P/B( ...