苏州银行：大股东主动增持再上新台阶，重申首推

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Bank, reiterating its position as a top pick in the banking sector [8] Core Views - Suzhou Bank's major shareholder, Guofa Group, has significantly increased its stake, demonstrating confidence in the bank's long-term value and growth potential [4] - The bank's asset quality and robust provision coverage provide a solid foundation for stable long-term returns, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio below 1% and a provision coverage ratio around 4% [4] - Suzhou Bank's expansion strategy focuses on key regions in Suzhou and Jiangsu Province, with a clear path to achieving a trillion-yuan asset scale [4] Financial Performance and Projections - Suzhou Bank's net profit is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3%, 8.1%, and 9.2% from 2024 to 2026, respectively [8] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase, supported by improved leverage and cost efficiency [4] - Suzhou Bank's price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2024 is 0.7x, indicating potential undervaluation compared to peers [4] Expansion Strategy - Suzhou Bank's expansion is driven by its focus on the Suzhou metropolitan area and four key regions in Jiangsu Province, contributing over 80% of its asset growth [12] - The bank's loan growth rate in 3Q24 was 14%, leading its peers, with further potential growth if the impact of reduced business loans is factored in [4] Asset Quality and Provisioning - Suzhou Bank is one of only five listed banks with an NPL ratio below 1% and a provision coverage ratio around 4%, which supports its ability to maintain stable earnings [4] - The bank's provision coverage ratio is expected to decline slightly from 522.77% in 2023 to 401.60% by 2026, reflecting a controlled approach to risk management [16] Valuation and Peer Comparison - Suzhou Bank's valuation remains attractive, with a 2024 PB ratio of 0.7x, which is a 10% discount compared to the average PB ratio of banks with similar asset quality metrics [4] - The bank's dividend yield is projected to be 4.9% in 2024 and 5.2% in 2025, making it an appealing option for income-focused investors [8]