国君2025年度策略|有色:转向需求侧,重塑价格周期

Investment Ratings - The report indicates a positive outlook for the aluminum, copper, lithium, and rare earth industries, highlighting strong demand and supply constraints as key factors driving investment opportunities [1][2]. Core Insights - The aluminum industry is experiencing a shift in pricing mechanisms due to increased resource constraints and higher upstream concentration, leading to improved profitability for alumina and bauxite in 2024, while the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be compressed [1]. - The copper market is characterized by a tight supply situation despite an anticipated increase in copper mine output, with demand driven by significant investments in power infrastructure, leading to a balanced yet constrained market [1]. - The lithium market is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices as supply clears, with strong demand from downstream sectors potentially leading to significant price elasticity for companies with their own mining operations [2]. - The rare earth market is projected to benefit from sustained demand driven by electric vehicles and wind energy, with new equipment updates expected to further boost demand starting in 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Aluminum - The report notes that domestic mining resources are becoming increasingly scarce due to stricter environmental policies and mining duration, which enhances the bargaining power of resource suppliers [1]. - The profitability of alumina and bauxite is expected to increase significantly in 2024, while the profitability of electrolytic aluminum will face compression due to changing pricing mechanisms [1]. Copper - Despite a planned increase of 800,000 tons in copper mine output by 2025, actual increments may fall short due to operational disruptions and aging mines [1]. - The demand for refined copper is expected to remain robust, with a projected growth rate of nearly 3% in electricity demand driven by increased investments from state-owned power companies [1]. Lithium - The market consensus suggests that low prices will gradually clear supply, with a strong demand outlook leading to optimism about future price increases [2]. - Companies with their own mining operations are positioned to benefit from lower costs and greater price elasticity in the next demand cycle [2]. Rare Earth - The report anticipates that demand for rare earth elements will remain strong due to increasing consumption in electric vehicles and wind energy, countering previous expectations of a slowdown [2]. - The orderly supply situation in China and slow overseas production increases will continue to constrain supply, supporting price stability [2].