房地产行业投资策略报告：多维助力，止跌回稳

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong commitment from the policy side to stabilize the real estate market, with significant measures introduced since September 2023 aimed at reversing the downward trend in the industry. The focus is on both supply-side and demand-side policies to improve buyer expectations and market confidence [2][4]. - The expectation for 2025 includes a continuation of supportive policies, with an emphasis on more proactive fiscal and monetary policies to enhance residents' income expectations and overall economic conditions [2][4]. Policy Support - A series of supportive policies have been introduced to stabilize the real estate market, including measures for inventory reduction and financial support for real estate companies. The policies are designed to address both short-term and long-term needs, with a focus on high-energy cities responding positively [17][24]. - The "stockpiling" policy is expected to help accelerate inventory reduction and stabilize market expectations, with local government investment companies likely to benefit first. As of October 2024, the real estate industry's residential inventory stood at 375 million square meters, with a de-stocking cycle of approximately 21 months [24][28]. Demand Outlook - The total transaction volume for "new and second-hand homes" is expected to remain relatively stable, with positive changes in core factors affecting housing demand. The report notes a significant narrowing of the sales decline in October 2023, indicating a recovery in market confidence [4][5]. - The report forecasts a slight decline in sales volume for 2025, estimating a decrease of around 3%, while the investment decline is expected to narrow due to ongoing policy support [5][4]. Industry Key Indicators - Sales and investment metrics for the real estate sector are projected to show a slight decline in 2025, with sales area and amount for the first ten months of 2024 down by 15.8% and 20.9% year-on-year, respectively. The report anticipates that the decline in new construction and completion will continue, but at a reduced rate compared to previous years [5][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving financing conditions for real estate companies, with ongoing policy support expected to enhance their ability to secure funding [5][4].