东海证券：晨会纪要-20241212

Key Recommendations - Strong downstream demand has led to further price increases in refrigerants, with prices for R32, R125, and R134a rising by 2.56%, 7.04%, and 11.43% respectively as of November 29, 2024 [8][9] - The 2025 refrigerant quota draft indicates an increase in R32 supply, suggesting that refrigerant prices will continue to rise in the long term [9] - December saw a continuous increase in household appliance sales and production, supporting strong refrigerant demand, with air conditioning production expected to remain high [10] Asset Allocation Outlook - Domestic asset performance in 2024 has shown equities outperforming commodities, bonds, and other asset classes [11] - The outlook for 2025 suggests a stable RMB exchange rate with limited fluctuations, while the bond market is expected to remain strong [12][13] - The commodity market is anticipated to show resilience, with oil prices expected to fluctuate between $55 and $80 per barrel next year [13] Industry Insights - The chemical industry is at a cyclical low, with cash flow improvements expected to balance capital expenditures and dividends [16] - The high-end manufacturing sector is seeing increased domestic market share due to the gradual realization of domestic substitutes for key components [16] - The financial sector is characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, with a focus on strengthening leading securities firms through mergers and acquisitions [16] Economic and Policy Outlook - The report highlights the Chinese government's strong commitment to economic growth, with expectations for a stable recovery supported by various monetary and fiscal policies [19][20] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize, with increased corporate profitability likely to enhance the value of listed companies [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of cooperation in building an open global economy, with a focus on innovation and technology as key growth drivers [28]