煤炭行业2025年投资策略：高股息高弹性，煤炭或开启新一轮周期

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to enter a new cycle starting in 2025, supported by high dividends and elasticity [2][4] - The report highlights that despite a downturn in industry prosperity in 2024, demand remains resilient [2][4] - The coal price is anticipated to stabilize and potentially rise due to domestic electricity demand growth and reduced supply elasticity [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Review: Industry Prosperity Declines, Demand Remains Resilient - The coal price has shown a downward trend in 2024, with a decrease of 11% in the market price since the beginning of the year [54][57] - Factors contributing to the price decline include a slowdown in demand growth, unexpected increases in import volumes, and production increases in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [55][56] - Despite a strong performance in 2021-2023, the coal sector underperformed in the second half of 2024, with a 12.8% increase in the first half followed by a decline of 4.2% [56] 2. Prosperity Cycle: Four Cycles Over Twenty Years, 2025 May Mark a New Cycle - The report indicates that the coal price is currently in a phase of stabilization and bottoming out, with international prices higher than domestic historical levels [2][4] - Key macro indicators such as M2 growth and manufacturing PMI are expected to rebound in the second half of 2024, which may improve coal price expectations [2][4] 3. Profitability Cycle: Industry Profitability and Cash Flow Better Than Previous Cycles - The profitability of the coal industry in 2024 remains above the annual levels seen in 2010-2020, with a notable decrease in debt levels and high operating cash flow [2][4] - Historical cost trends show a gradual increase over the past two decades, with capital expenditure growth rates declining [2][4] 4. 2025 Coal Price Support: Domestic Electricity Demand Growth + Balanced Overseas Supply + Reduced Domestic Supply Elasticity - The report forecasts stable growth in coal demand from 2025 to 2027, with electricity consumption expected to grow by 2-3% and coal demand potentially increasing by 1-2% [2][4] - Domestic coal production is projected to grow by 50-70 million tons annually from 2025 to 2027, although actual new production may be lower than expected [2][4] 5. Key Companies: Focus on Three Investment Themes - The report identifies key companies with high dividends, stable growth, and low valuations with high elasticity, including Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [2][4] - Companies such as Yanzhou Coal and Xinji Energy are highlighted for their stable growth potential, while others like Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma are noted for their low valuations and high elasticity [2][4] 6. Overall Viewpoint: Marginal Improvement in Supply and Demand Expected in 2025 - The report concludes that supply and demand conditions are likely to improve marginally in 2025, with a focus on companies that offer high dividends and stable growth [2][4]