兴证军工行业观察：“十四五”收官年将至，需求结构性反转可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, with specific companies receiving an "Increase" rating [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. Core Insights - The defense and military industry is expected to experience a structural demand reversal as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion in 2025, with growth anticipated to continue into 2026 [31][33]. - Recent inspections by President Xi Jinping of various military units emphasize the importance of modernizing the military and enhancing information support capabilities, which may drive demand for related military products [30][31]. - The report highlights that the industry has likely passed a weak phase, with demand turning upward as the execution of the "14th Five-Year Plan" enters a critical delivery phase [31]. - The demand for platform products is expected to remain stable, while consumable weapons are projected to grow rapidly, driven by high renewal rates in aviation engines and information products [33]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment View - The defense and military index increased by 3.35% over the past two weeks, ranking 23rd among 30 primary industry indices, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.84 percentage points [29]. - The top-performing stocks in the defense sector included Construction Industry (62.68%), Xingtun New Science (29.70%), and New Emerging Equipment (29.01%) [29]. 2. Market Performance - The defense and military index rose by 1.03% in the week from December 2 to December 6, 2024, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.33% [34]. - Year-to-date, the defense and military index has risen by 11.86%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.57 percentage points [34]. 3. Major Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report includes earnings forecasts for key companies in the defense sector, indicating a positive outlook for those with stable growth trajectories [34]. 4. Military Fund Review - The report reviews the performance of military-themed funds, noting trends and shifts in investment strategies within the sector [34]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses recent developments in military equipment and policy changes that may impact the industry, including the emphasis on technological advancements and modernization [30][31]. 6. Listed Company Dynamics - The report tracks the performance of newly listed companies in the defense sector, highlighting significant stock price movements and market capitalization changes [42]. 7. Recent Key Reports - The report references recent analyses and insights into the military industry, providing context for current market conditions and future expectations [21].