石油化工行业周报：OPEC+延长减产，上游板块有望受益

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Overweight" [8] Core Viewpoints - The upstream sector is expected to benefit from OPEC+ extending production cuts, with international oil prices likely to remain at relatively high levels, favoring upstream oil and gas companies [5][31] - The oil service sector shows a mixed outlook, with a week-on-week increase in active drilling rigs in North America, but a significant year-on-year decrease [32] - The midstream refining sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with significant improvements in price differentials for key products like ethylene and PX [37] - The polyester terminal sector shows potential for performance recovery due to inventory reduction and improved price differentials [43] Market Performance - The CITIC Oil and Petrochemical sector rose approximately 1.99% during the week of December 2-6, 2024, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by about 2.33% [4][18] - Key stocks that led the gains included Unification Holdings (+20.04%), Heshun Petroleum (+13.58%), and Huibo Technology (+9.19%) [20][21] Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - International oil prices saw a decline, with Brent crude settling at approximately $71.12 per barrel, down about 2.50% week-on-week [22][24] - The EIA projects U.S. crude oil production to reach 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024, maintaining growth [31] Oil Service Sector - The number of active drilling rigs in North America increased by 7 week-on-week, although it decreased by 37 year-on-year [32] - Global drilling platform activity has improved, benefiting oil service companies [32] Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with gasoline prices in Shandong rising by approximately 148 RMB per ton [37] - The price differential for gasoline in Singapore increased by about $1.1 per barrel, indicating a stronger performance in refining [37] Polyester Terminal Sector - The POY price differential is approximately 1045 RMB per ton, with overall inventory reduction observed [43] - The performance recovery potential for long filament enterprises is significant due to inventory depletion [43] Investment Recommendations - Four main investment themes are suggested: 1. Focus on energy central enterprises like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [6] 2. Attention to oil service companies such as CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [6] 3. Investment in long filament companies like Xinfengming and Tongkun [6] 4. Monitoring refining companies like Satellite Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical [6]