汽车2025年展望：似曾相识燕归来，春风拂柳吐新芽

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, and others, while holding a "Hold" rating for NIO [4][41]. Core Insights - The Chinese passenger car market is expected to show resilience in 2025, with retail sales projected to decline by 2% to 23.08 million units due to demand being pulled forward by the trade-in subsidy policy in 2024 [45][48]. - The wholesale sales of passenger cars in China are anticipated to increase by 3.8% in 2025, supported by rising overseas sales and inventory replenishment [45]. - The market share of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to reach 57.8% in retail sales by 2025, with a significant increase in the number of new models from domestic brands [1][3]. Summary by Sections 2025 Outlook - The report predicts that the retail and wholesale sales of NEVs in China will grow by 22% year-on-year, reaching 13.35 million and 14.90 million units respectively in 2025 [3]. - Domestic brands are expected to significantly outnumber foreign brands in new vehicle launches, with NEVs accounting for 84% of new car sales [3]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes that 2024 will be a year of maturation for the NEV industry in China, with price competitiveness and brand strength becoming crucial as differentiation strategies become harder to implement [2][37]. - Recommended stocks include Geely and Xpeng, which have shown potential for successful new model launches and improved profitability [41][42]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the penetration rate of NEVs in lower-tier cities has reached 38%, indicating a broadening market base [2][37]. - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, with a focus on profitability and a reduction in tolerance for losses among investors [2][38]. Key Company Projections - Geely is projected to achieve a 10% increase in wholesale sales to 2.38 million units in 2025, with 55% being NEVs, and a core net profit growth of 36% to 12.5 billion RMB [41][42]. - Xpeng is expected to see a significant sales increase of 110% in 2025, reaching 390,000 units, with a path to profitability anticipated by 2026 [42].