互联网2025展望：逆风前行，但可以有更多期待

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the internet industry, suggesting a focus on companies with strong business moats and growth potential, particularly in mature sectors and overseas expansion [1][12][14]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the introduction of substantial consumption-boosting policies will be a key driver for structural valuation improvement in the sector, while the industry may experience volatility before these policies are enacted [1][12]. - It identifies three main investment themes: 1) Companies with strong business moats and new growth opportunities, such as Tencent, NetEase, Alibaba, and Meituan; 2) Sectors with rapid profit growth that may see valuation recovery, including OTA, short video, and education, with a focus on Ctrip, Kuaishou, and New Oriental; 3) Companies with overseas expansion potential, particularly in e-commerce and OTA [1][12][14]. Summary by Sections Consumption Boost and AI - The report anticipates that the main growth drivers for 2025 will include consumption-boosting policies, generative AI opportunities in cloud and advertising, and overseas market expansion [1][12][14]. - It highlights that the online travel agency (OTA) sector is expected to maintain strong revenue growth due to low overseas online penetration and established supply chains [1][12]. Shareholder Returns - The average net cash to market value ratio for Chinese internet companies has reached 26%, indicating a strong focus on sustainable shareholder returns as a support for valuation [1][12][14]. - Companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and NetEase are recommended for their robust shareholder return strategies [1][12]. Sector Performance Expectations - Local services, online gaming, and online travel are favored sectors due to their resilience and growth potential, while the e-commerce sector faces challenges from weak retail sales [1][12][14]. - The online advertising sector is expected to see differentiated performance across platforms, with short video platforms maintaining revenue growth [1][12][14]. Specific Company Insights - Tencent and NetEase are expected to benefit from new game releases and overseas revenue growth, with projected revenue increases of 8% and 7% respectively for FY25 [22]. - The report projects a 10% growth in domestic tourism revenue, with OTA revenue expected to grow even faster due to increased online penetration [22]. - E-commerce is projected to grow by 7.1% in 2025, driven by consumption recovery and potential policy support [23]. Profit Elasticity - Companies such as Bilibili, New Oriental, and Beike are noted for their high profit elasticity, indicating that they could see significant profit increases with revenue growth [17][18].