半导体产业链“国产替代”提速，终端需求温和复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the electronics industry [2][7]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing accelerated domestic substitution, with terminal demand showing a mild recovery. The report highlights that global and Chinese semiconductor sales have continued to grow, driven by structural demand from AI and new energy vehicles [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of U.S. export restrictions on China's semiconductor industry, which may stimulate domestic companies to increase R&D investments in the long run [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Valuation - The report notes that the Shenwan Electronics Index increased by 2.9% from November 25 to December 9, ranking 25th among Shenwan's primary industries [20]. - The semiconductor sector showed the smallest increase at 2.0%, while the components sector had the largest increase at 4.8% during the same period [22]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Semiconductor Sales - Global semiconductor sales reached $56.88 billion in October, a year-on-year increase of 22.1% and a month-on-month increase of 2.8%. Cumulatively, from January to October, sales totaled $502.67 billion, up 18.8% year-on-year [5][31]. - China's semiconductor sales in October were $16.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17% and a month-on-month growth of 1% [31][33]. 2.2 Memory Chip Prices - Memory chip prices have stabilized after a rebound from their lows. As of December 9, the average spot prices for DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 were $0.78, $3.77, and $4.75, respectively, with month-on-month changes of -7.14%, -0.53%, and -1.04% [40][41]. 2.3 Mobile Market - In October 2024, domestic smartphone shipments reached 29.67 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a month-on-month increase of 16.96%. 5G smartphones accounted for 90.05% of total shipments [46][54]. - The high-end smartphone market is experiencing strong demand, with global shipments of smartphones priced over $600 increasing by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [54][59]. 2.4 Wireless Bluetooth Earphone Market - The global true wireless stereo (TWS) market grew by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with shipments reaching 92.3 million units. Apple maintained the top position with a 21% market share [61][62]. 2.5 Wearable Device Market - The global wearable wristband device market saw shipments reach 52.9 million units in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3% [67]. 3. Industry News - The U.S. has imposed new export restrictions on China's semiconductor industry, with 140 companies added to the entity list, which may impact the supply chain [73].