国际宏观-美国经济分析：业绩期要点，准备应对关税 （摘要）-高盛【

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The sentiment around the health of the US consumer has improved, reaching its highest level in nearly three years, with solid real income growth across various income groups [11][20]. - Companies are planning to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs through strategies such as passing costs to customers, stockpiling goods, and reshuffling supply chains [44][46]. - The labor market appears fully rebalanced, which is putting downward pressure on wage and price growth, with wage growth expectations around 3.5% [25][30]. Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Real revenues excluding energy grew by 4.6% year-over-year in Q3, marking the fastest pace since Q1 2022 [6][10]. - Earnings grew by 8% year-over-year, surpassing consensus expectations of 3% growth [6][10]. Consumer Spending - Consumer spending remains robust, with company commentary indicating that consumers are spending in a healthy manner despite pressures on lower-income households [11][20]. - Real retail spending among lower-income consumers has been positive over the last year, and the spending gap across income levels has narrowed [20][21]. Labor Market - The labor market is described as healthy but cooling, with companies reporting continued hiring and waning wage pressures, especially in lower-skilled service industries [25][30]. - Mentions of labor shortages and costs have decreased, returning to pre-pandemic levels [30][31]. Tariff Impact - Companies are preparing for potential tariff increases by planning to pass costs to consumers, stockpile goods, and adjust supply chains [44][46]. - Anecdotal evidence suggests that US imports from China have increased following the recent elections, indicating companies are already taking steps to mitigate tariff impacts [46][47].