美国CPI点评（2024.11）：美国核心通胀为何降不动了？

Inflation Trends - In November 2024, the U.S. core CPI remained at a high level of 3.3% year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, indicating persistent inflation pressures[2] - The overall CPI rebounded by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.31%, marking the highest growth in nearly eight months[2] - The increase in core CPI is attributed to rising durable goods prices and stable growth in non-rent services and core non-durable goods, driven by high wage growth[2] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The necessity for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has weakened, with expectations of only two rate cuts in 2025, both concentrated in the first half of the year[2] - The report suggests that core inflation may not decline significantly in early 2025, potentially returning to current high levels after May due to various economic policies and market conditions[2] Economic Factors - The rise in durable goods prices by 0.18% month-on-month reflects a decrease in the negative impact of energy prices on durable goods consumption, indicating strong consumer demand[2] - Rent prices increased by 0.31% month-on-month, although this is seen as a lagging indicator that may rise further in the coming months due to the real estate market's recovery[2] Currency and Global Economic Outlook - The U.S. dollar index is expected to experience slight fluctuations in the first half of 2025 before rising to around 110 in the second half, influenced by potential tariffs on China[2] - The report anticipates that the Chinese yuan may depreciate against the dollar, with a forecasted exchange rate range of 7.2 to 7.6 throughout 2025[2]