美国11月CPI数据解读：通胀符合预期，支持美联储下周继续降息

Inflation Data - The overall CPI in the US increased from 2.6% to 2.7% year-on-year in November, aligning with market expectations[14] - The core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, consistent with previous values[14] - The month-on-month CPI growth was 0.3%, higher than the previous value of 0.2%[14] Market Reactions - Following the inflation report, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 98%[14] - The Nasdaq index surpassed 20,000 points, reaching a historical high due to "Fear of Missing Out" sentiment in the stock market[14] Inflation Drivers - The inflation rebound in November was primarily driven by increases in used car and energy prices, while the growth rate of housing services slowed down[17] - Forward-looking indicators suggest that the rebound in used car prices is likely to continue, whereas the year-on-year growth rate of housing rents is expected to decline[17] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting, but may signal a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025 due to potential inflationary pressures from tax cuts and tariffs under a new administration[22] - The report highlights the risk of the US economy weakening beyond expectations and a rapid deterioration in the job market[23]