2024年11月外贸数据点评：贸易摩擦叠加高基数，出口有所下滑

Export Performance - In November 2024, China's total goods trade value reached 3.75 trillion RMB, with exports at 2.22 trillion RMB, reflecting a growth of 5.8%[36] - Exports to developed countries showed a decline, particularly a significant drop in exports to the EU[42] - Major labor-intensive goods, except toys, experienced a decline, with automotive exports turning negative[44] Import Trends - Imports fell by 4.7% in November, totaling 1.53 trillion RMB, with a notable drop in most major import categories except for automobiles and crude oil[36] - The growth rate of mechanical and electrical imports turned negative, contributing to the overall decline in imports[48] Trade Surplus - The trade surplus in November reached 974.43 billion USD, marking the second-highest level of the year, compared to 957.19 billion USD in October and 690.65 billion USD in the same month last year[51] Economic Outlook - Despite the decline in exports, the overall export performance for the year remains strong, supported by a soft exchange rate and China's manufacturing advantages[55] - Domestic policies are expected to implement proactive macroeconomic measures to boost consumption and investment, aiming to expand domestic demand[57] Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[58]