2024年11月美国CPI数据点评：为什么我们认为美国通胀将低于预期？

Inflation Data Summary - November US CPI year-on-year increased by 2.7%, up from 2.6% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[4] - Seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rose by 0.3%, compared to 0.2% previously, meeting market forecasts[4] - Core CPI year-on-year remained steady at 3.3%, consistent with prior values and market predictions[4] Market Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has surged to 98.6%, up from 88.9% the previous day, indicating strong market anticipation for a rate cut[4] - The market currently expects two rate cuts in the upcoming year, although there is significant uncertainty regarding the inflation outlook[4] Housing Inflation Trends - Housing inflation indicators, such as rent and owner's equivalent rent, have shown a decrease to 0.2%, the lowest in three years, suggesting a convergence with market rent levels[6] - Housing inflation accounts for approximately 37% of the CPI, and its downward trend is expected to help lower the overall inflation rate[6] Economic Policy Implications - The anticipated "re-inflation" risks associated with Trump's policies are considered manageable, as his focus on economic issues may take precedence over inflation concerns[6] - The report suggests that the market may be overestimating the risks of rising inflation in the future, implying that the pace of rate cuts could be faster than currently expected[6]