基于过去五年复盘：中央经济工作会议如何影响市场趋势和结构？

Group 1 - The central economic work conference's policy tone and industrial focus are not the core factors determining short to medium-term market trends and structural main lines [2][30] - In 2023, the conference's tone was stable, leading to a continued downward trend in the market, primarily due to pessimistic economic expectations [2][34] - In 2022, the conference's tone was positive, resulting in a market shift from a consumption style to a growth style, driven by the emphasis on safety and the emergence of AI catalysts [2][34] Group 2 - Despite the conference not determining market trends, if the post-conference market rises, the likelihood of a growth style prevailing increases; conversely, if the market falls, coal may dominate [2][30] - In 2023, the main line remained high dividend stocks, which was not influenced by the conference's focus on "technological innovation and expanding domestic demand" [2][34] - The market's main line in 2021 shifted from new energy to strong alpha coal, influenced by the market's turning point rather than the conference itself [2][34] Group 3 - The 2023 conference's macro policy expectations fell short, leading to an accelerated market decline post-conference, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping from 3003 points to 2702 points, a decrease of 10% [2][47] - The high dividend style, represented by coal, utilities, and banks, performed relatively well during the downward trend, indicating a preference for stable returns amid weak economic recovery [2][50] - The conference's specific focus on industries such as new energy vehicles and digital technology did not lead to independent market movements post-conference, as the overall market continued to decline [2][59]