金属行业周报：12月中共中央政治局会议释放积极信号

Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [4] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [4] Core Views - The Central Political Bureau's meeting in December has released positive signals, which are expected to boost market confidence and provide short-term support for steel prices [1][2][3][4]. - The aluminum industry is facing pressure from high alumina prices, while the cancellation of export tax rebates may impact domestic aluminum exports. However, the overall outlook for aluminum prices is expected to be strong in the short term [3][4]. - The copper market is anticipated to lack support due to the end of maintenance periods for most domestic smelters, although positive signals from the Central Political Bureau may lead to a short-term price increase [2][4]. - The lithium market is expected to experience weak performance due to seasonal factors, with supply expected to be strong and demand weak [4][67]. Summary by Sections Steel - The steel industry is entering a traditional off-season, with overall inventory continuing to decline. The Central Political Bureau's meeting has provided positive signals that are expected to support short-term steel prices [25][35]. - As of December 6, the total steel inventory was 1,179.90 million tons, down 1.01% from November 29, and down 9.17% year-on-year [35]. - The average profit margins for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, rebar, and medium-thick plates were negative, indicating pressure on profitability [46]. Copper - The copper market is facing challenges with supply concerns, and the actual consumption is not expected to improve significantly during the traditional off-season. The Central Political Bureau's positive signals may provide some support for copper prices in the short term [2][50]. - As of December 6, the LME copper spot price was $9,000 per ton, reflecting a 1.81% increase from November 29 [54]. Aluminum - The aluminum industry is under pressure from high alumina prices, and the cancellation of export tax rebates may affect domestic aluminum exports. However, the overall outlook for aluminum prices is expected to be strong in the short term due to positive signals from the Central Political Bureau [3][60]. Non-ferrous Metals - The lithium market is expected to see weak performance due to seasonal factors, with supply expected to be strong and demand weak. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 yuan per ton as of December 6, down 0.38% from November 29 [67].