建材行业2025年年度策略：盈利底部，供需拐点将至

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is expected to reach a profit bottom with a supply-demand turning point approaching [1]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the building materials sector is 37.50, with a historical percentile of 85.12% as of November 28, 2024 [14]. - The report highlights that the consumption building materials PB valuation is at a historical low, indicating potential investment opportunities [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - As of November 28, 2024, the building materials sector has seen a cumulative decline of 1.75% since the beginning of the year, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 10.78% [14]. - The PE (TTM) for various segments is as follows: glass at 23.69, renovation materials at 29.82, glass fiber at 34.05, and cement at 49.09, with respective historical percentiles indicating varying levels of valuation [14]. 2. Consumption Building Materials - The report notes that the real estate market is experiencing a downturn, but channel optimization is being sought for new growth [39]. - Leading companies are enhancing their C-end business and exploring new channels, which is expected to drive demand recovery [39]. 3. Glass Fiber - The glass fiber sector is entering a destocking cycle, with prices beginning to recover after a period of low demand [39]. - The report suggests that the industry is nearing an upward turning point, making it a favorable time for investment [39]. 4. Cement - The cement industry is currently facing a seasonal downturn, but there are expectations for profit recovery in Q4 due to new real estate stimulus policies and increased infrastructure investment [39]. - The report anticipates that cement prices will stabilize and potentially increase, leading to improved profitability for leading companies in the sector [39]. 5. Real Estate Policy Changes - The report discusses the shift in real estate policies aimed at stimulating demand, including lowering mortgage rates and adjusting down payment requirements [28][29]. - These policy changes are expected to gradually improve the real estate market, which in turn will positively impact the building materials sector [28][29]. 6. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the retail building materials sector, which are expected to see market share growth and improved profitability as demand recovers [39]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include 三棵树 (Sankeshu), 东方雨虹 (Dongfang Yuhong), and 兔宝宝 (Tubaobao) [39].