建筑行业2025年投资策略：内外共振，看好化债和“一带一路”

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the construction engineering industry [3] Core Views - The construction industry faced pressure in 2024, but infrastructure investment is expected to remain robust in 2025 due to debt resolution policies [3] - The report highlights two main investment themes: debt resolution and the "Belt and Road" initiative, which are expected to drive industry recovery and growth [3] - Debt resolution is expected to improve the operational quality of state-owned construction enterprises, while the "Belt and Road" initiative will benefit international engineering companies [3] Industry Fundamentals and Market Performance 2024 Industry Review - New contracts, revenue, and profits in the construction industry declined for the first time in recent years in 2024 [12] - New contracts in the construction industry fell by 4.74% YoY in Q1-Q3 2024, while orders on hand grew by 1.81% [12] - Revenue and net profit of listed construction companies declined by 5.0% and 11.8% YoY, respectively, in Q1-Q3 2024 [12] Market Performance - The SW Construction Decoration Index rose by 19.13% from the beginning of 2024 to November 28, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All-A indices by 6.3 and 8.5 percentage points, respectively [24] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and local SOEs led the gains, with increases of 22.33% and 22.31%, respectively, while private enterprises lagged with a 2.94% increase [24] Investment Themes Theme 1: Debt Resolution Driving SOE Improvement - Debt resolution is expected to improve the cash flow and profitability of state-owned construction enterprises, with EPS and PE multiples expected to rise [33] - The report estimates that 1.2-1.6 trillion yuan of debt resolution funds will be used to repay construction companies' receivables, improving their financial health [64] - Key beneficiaries include China Railway Group, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction [69] Theme 2: "Belt and Road" Initiative Accelerating International Engineering - The "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to accelerate, benefiting international engineering companies with high overseas exposure [34] - Southeast Asia and the Middle East are highlighted as regions with strong infrastructure demand, with significant growth in overseas contracts [84] - Companies like China National Materials, China National Chemical Engineering, and China National Machinery Industry are expected to benefit [34] Historical Performance of "Belt and Road" Themes - The report reviews four major "Belt and Road" market cycles (2014-2015, 2017, 2019, and 2023), noting that international engineering companies outperformed large construction SOEs in three of the four cycles [83] - International engineering companies like China National Materials and China National Chemical Engineering showed higher elasticity in revenue and profit growth during these cycles [83]