食品饮料行业2025年年度策略：雨后复斜阳，关山阵阵苍

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while recommending "Hold" for others like Jinshiyuan and Shanxi Fenjiu [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the food and beverage sector is expected to experience a two-step recovery, with short-term valuation repair followed by mid-term fundamental improvement [2][31]. - It highlights three main directions for 2025: scene restoration, industry turning points, and sustained prosperity [31]. Summary by Sections 1. Economic Overview - The report notes that the domestic effective demand was insufficient in 2024, impacting the food and beverage sector negatively, particularly in the white liquor and catering supply chain segments [14]. - In Q1 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, but the growth momentum weakened in Q2 and Q3, with GDP growth rates of 4.7% and 4.6% respectively [16][18]. 2. Sector Performance - The white liquor sector showed resilience in revenue growth in the first half of 2024 but faced pressure in Q3, while sectors like beer and dairy products began to decline earlier in the year [26]. - Snack foods and soft drinks benefited from a high price-performance ratio, maintaining a high prosperity trend [26]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on white liquor and catering supply chains for scene restoration, with an emphasis on leading brands [2][31]. - It also suggests paying attention to the whiskey and dairy product sectors as they approach turning points, with expected stabilization in milk prices [31]. 4. Valuation Insights - As of November 22, 2024, the dynamic PE ratio for the food and beverage sector was 20.63 times, indicating it is at a low historical percentile compared to the past years [28]. - The report emphasizes that while the sector is experiencing a valuation recovery, it remains below historical averages, particularly for white liquor and beer [28]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the economic growth focus will shift from external demand to internal demand, supported by various counter-cyclical policies [31][32]. - It highlights the potential for increased fiscal expansion and monetary easing in response to external pressures, particularly from U.S. tariffs [32].