新股覆盖研究：国货航

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected increase in stock price relative to the market index over the next 6-12 months [53]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Guohang (001391.SZ), is a comprehensive aviation logistics service provider, with its main business segments including air freight services, air cargo station services, and integrated logistics solutions. The company has shown significant revenue growth in the latest reporting period, with a projected revenue increase of 35.40% and a net profit increase of 55.70% for 2024 [15][27]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved revenues of 243.05 billion yuan, 230.76 billion yuan, and 149.19 billion yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 33.17%, -5.06%, and -35.35%. The net profit for the same years was 43.42 billion yuan, 31.08 billion yuan, and 11.53 billion yuan, with corresponding year-over-year changes of 32.01%, -28.42%, and -62.89%. For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported revenues of 142.29 billion yuan, a 44.81% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of 11.05 billion yuan, up 71.07% year-over-year [15][27]. Industry Situation - The aviation logistics industry in China has significant growth potential, with the country's air freight volume accounting for 10.7% of the global total in 2020, ranking second worldwide. The industry is expected to continue its steady growth, supported by increasing trade volumes and government initiatives [27][29]. Company Highlights - Guohang is a key player in the aviation logistics sector, leveraging resources from its parent company, AVIC Group. The company operates 21 freighters and has a network covering 24 routes across major global markets. It has established a strong market position with a 17.32% share of China's air logistics market [42][43]. Investment Projects - The company plans to invest in three main projects through its IPO proceeds: acquiring five B777-200F freighters, enhancing logistics capabilities through new hub constructions, and upgrading information technology systems to improve operational efficiency. The total investment is estimated at 850.66 million yuan, with 350 million yuan allocated from the IPO funds [44][45]. Comparison with Industry Peers - In 2023, Guohang's revenue was 149.19 billion yuan, a decline of 35.35%, and its net profit was 11.53 billion yuan, down 62.89%. Comparatively, peer companies like Eastern Airlines Logistics and Southern Airlines Logistics had average revenues of 186.13 billion yuan and a PE-TTM of 9.07X, indicating that Guohang's performance in terms of revenue and profit margins has not met industry standards [48][49].