Leaderdrive(688017) 中原证券·2024-12-12 11:05Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a potential increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][24]. Core Views - The company, Greentec Harmonic (688017), reported a revenue growth of 25.59% in Q3 2024, signaling a gradual recovery in the industry [3][7]. - The industrial robot market is expected to recover, with production turning positive from April-May 2024, which will benefit the demand for harmonic reducers [7][8]. - The company is positioned as a leading domestic manufacturer of harmonic reducers, benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution in the industrial robot sector [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 276 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.64% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 58.83 million yuan, showing a decline compared to the previous year [3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 39.53%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][9]. Market Trends - The production of industrial robots in China saw a cumulative increase of 13.3% year-on-year from January to October 2024, reversing a trend of decline [7]. - Domestic manufacturers of industrial robots have seen a market share increase to 51.6%, up 4.5 percentage points from the same period in 2023 [7]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 409 million yuan, 514 million yuan, and 655 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [9][10]. - The corresponding net profit forecasts are 84 million yuan, 115 million yuan, and 155 million yuan for the same years [9][10].