美国11月CPI数据点评：商品价格拉动通胀，服务类价格稳定

Inflation Data - The US November CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations, and rose 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.6%[3] - Core CPI also rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with previous expectations[3] Inflation Drivers - Seasonal inflation recovery is primarily driven by commodity prices, particularly food, which increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with beef and eggs rising by 3.1% and 8.2% respectively[4] - Core goods inflation reached 0.3%, the highest since May 2023, while service prices outside of housing have shown a consistent decline for three months[4] Monetary Policy Outlook - The current inflation trend is not expected to hinder a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with potential for rates to approach 4% if inflation risks continue to decline[3][5] - The US 10-year Treasury yield is projected to remain between 4.6% and 4.85%, with models indicating a low likelihood of breaching 5%[6] Market Conditions - The US stock market is currently viewed as having a 35% bubble, with a neutral to slightly positive outlook for long-term positions, while short-term positions may be considered post-election[7] - The overall inflation trend is expected to stabilize around 3%, allowing for cautious monetary easing in the second and third quarters of the following year[5]