美国通胀系列九：通胀预期内走高，关注美元反弹风险

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In November, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous value of 2.6%[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with the previous two months and up from 3.2% in August[5] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, aligning with expectations and up from 0.2% in the prior month[2] Group 2: Key Influences on Inflation - Food prices increased by 2.4%, while energy prices decreased by 3.2%, showing a rebound of 3.6 percentage points from previous lows, supporting low inflation levels[4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, but new job additions increased to 227,000, indicating resilience in core inflation[5] - The market is observing a potential stabilization of oil prices around $70 per barrel, which could impact future inflation trends[4] Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts in September and November have contributed to a liquidity environment that has driven U.S. stock markets to new highs[4] - Despite the Fed's actions, the ongoing "balance sheet reduction" policy introduces uncertainty for risk assets in the future[4] - The resilience in core inflation provides the Fed with more flexibility for potential rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated in December[5] Group 4: Risks and Market Outlook - There is a risk of a rebound in the U.S. dollar due to changing market conditions and geopolitical uncertainties, despite low volatility in the market[6] - The divergence between inflation expectations and oil prices suggests that supply-side factors may continue to support price levels[32] - The potential for renewed demand pressures and rising energy costs could drive further dollar appreciation in the near term[4]