Market Outlook - The report highlights an optimistic economic outlook for 2024, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies from the government[3] - The Central Economic Work Conference announced plans to increase the fiscal deficit rate to over 3% and issue over 1 trillion yuan in special bonds, indicating a more aggressive fiscal policy for 2025[9] - The report emphasizes the importance of seasonal capital inflows and consumer behavior in the A-share market, particularly during the year-end period[3] Commodity Analysis - The report suggests a bullish stance on precious metals and the black sector, recommending buying on dips, while maintaining a neutral outlook on other commodities[3] - The oilseed sector is noted for its strong performance due to supply tightness caused by the transition to biodiesel and the La Niña effect[5] - Gold is highlighted as having strong certainty, with a cautionary note regarding potential adjustments following the U.S. elections[5] Risk Factors - Key risks identified include geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices, unexpected global economic downturns, and potential tightening by the Federal Reserve[6] - The report warns of risks associated with overseas liquidity shocks impacting risk assets[6] U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. November PPI rose by 3.0%, exceeding expectations of 2.6%[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is estimated at 87.7%[3]
宏观大类日报：政策助力行情 经济展望乐观
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2024-12-13 00:57