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奥多比：AI adoption on track,but slow pace of monetization impacts sentiment
ADBEAdobe(ADBE) 招银国际·2024-12-13 01:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Adobe, with a target price of US634.50,reflectingapotentialupsideof15.4634.50, reflecting a potential upside of 15.4% from the current price of US549.93 [2][17]. Core Insights - Adobe's total revenue for 4QFY24 grew by 11% YoY to US5.61billion,aligningwithconsensusestimates,whilenon−GAAPnetincomeincreasedby95.61 billion, aligning with consensus estimates, while non-GAAP net income increased by 9% YoY to US2.13 billion [1]. - The company is experiencing a deceleration in Digital Media net new ARR growth, which was up 2% YoY to US578millionin4QFY24,raisinginvestorconcernsaboutthemonetizationpaceofAIapplications[1].−AdobeplanstoaccelerateAImonetizationinFY25byintroducinghigher−pricedAIservices,withmanagementguidingtotalrevenuegrowthof8−10578 million in 4QFY24, raising investor concerns about the monetization pace of AI applications [1]. - Adobe plans to accelerate AI monetization in FY25 by introducing higher-priced AI services, with management guiding total revenue growth of 8-10% YoY to US23.30-23.55 billion for FY25E [1][5]. Financial Performance - For FY25E, Adobe's revenue is projected to reach US23.5billion,withadjustednetprofitexpectedatUS23.5 billion, with adjusted net profit expected at US8.86 billion, translating to an adjusted EPS of US19.83[1][10].−Thecompanyreportedastablenon−GAAPoperatingprofitmargin(OPM)of4619.83 [1][10]. - The company reported a stable non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) of 46% in 4QFY24, with guidance for a similar margin in FY25E [1][4]. - Digital Experience revenue grew by 10% YoY to US1.4 billion in 4QFY24, driven by Adobe Experience Manager and Adobe Journey Optimizer [1]. Growth and Valuation - Adobe's revenue growth is expected to slow, with projections of 9.4% for FY25E and further declines in subsequent years [14]. - The valuation of Adobe is set at US284billion,basedonatargetP/Eof32xforFY25E,whichisbelowthesectoraverageof41x[5][6].−Thecompanyhasastrongcashposition,withcashandequivalentsexpectedtoreachUS284 billion, based on a target P/E of 32x for FY25E, which is below the sector average of 41x [5][6]. - The company has a strong cash position, with cash and equivalents expected to reach US11.88 billion by the end of FY25E [12].