中央经济工作会议点评：迎风奋进，全方位扩内需

Economic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the current economic challenges, including insufficient domestic demand and pressures on employment and income growth[2] - Despite difficulties, the long-term positive trend of the economy remains unchanged, supported by a stable foundation and strong potential[3] Policy Direction - The conference emphasized a balanced approach to economic policy, focusing on effective markets and proactive government roles[3] - The economic growth target for 2025 is expected to remain around 5%, with a focus on stabilizing growth, employment, and reasonable price recovery[3] Fiscal Policy - A more proactive fiscal policy is anticipated, with a projected deficit rate of 3.8%-4% and a deficit scale of approximately CNY 5.5 trillion[5] - New local government special bonds are expected to reach about CNY 4.5 trillion, while special bonds issuance may be around CNY 2 trillion[5] Monetary Policy - An appropriately loose monetary policy is expected, with potential interest rate cuts of 40-50 basis points in 2025[7] - The social financing scale is projected to increase by approximately CNY 36 trillion, with a growth rate of about 8.7%[7] Domestic Demand Expansion - The conference prioritized expanding domestic demand, particularly through initiatives to boost consumer spending and support middle and low-income groups[7] - Investment strategies will focus on enhancing project support and increasing central budget investments[7] Real Estate Market - Policies will aim to stabilize the real estate market, with efforts to release housing demand and manage land supply effectively[8] - The focus will be on promoting the construction of affordable housing and revitalizing existing properties[8] Technological Innovation - Emphasis on technological innovation as a driver for developing a modern industrial system and enhancing financial services[8] - The goal is to attract more social capital for venture investments and nurture innovative enterprises[8] Risk Management - The need for effective risk prevention and resolution in key areas, including real estate and local government debt, was underscored[8] - Maintaining systemic financial stability is a priority, with coordinated efforts to address potential risks[8]