医药生物行业2025年投资策略：蓄势待发，创新为王

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry for 2025 [1] Core Views - The global innovative drug and device sector is sensitive to the interest rate environment, with the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to improve the financing environment for innovative drugs and devices, leading to increased orders in the CXO sector [2] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index has underperformed as of November 2024, with the A-share SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index PE (TTM) at approximately 33 times, which is still below the average valuation over the past decade [2] - Key focus areas include: 1) Innovative drugs supported by strong national policies and improved payment mechanisms; 2) CXO sector benefiting from the elimination of negative impacts from the Biological Safety Act and increased demand during the rate-cutting cycle; 3) Transition from generic to innovative drugs; 4) Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) with strong policy support; 5) Medical devices with ongoing equipment updates and innovations [2] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth, with some high-performance and innovation-driven stocks showing significant gains [6] - From January to November 2024, the A-share SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index fell by 9.29%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 23.43 percentage points [7] - The chemical drug sector saw the highest increase at 2.93%, while the biological products sector experienced the largest decline at 22.31% [7] Valuation - As of November 2024, the A-share SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index PE (TTM) is approximately 33 times, indicating potential for valuation recovery [13] Innovative Drugs - The Chinese government has implemented comprehensive support policies for innovative drug development, enhancing the commercial viability and research capabilities of domestic companies [20][23] - The 2024 National Medical Insurance Drug List has been officially implemented, adding 91 new drugs, with an average price reduction of 63%, expected to reduce patient costs by over 50 billion yuan in 2025 [23] - The number of license-out transactions for Chinese innovative drugs has reached a new high, with 111 transactions reported by December 9, 2024, totaling $46.644 billion, indicating global market recognition [28] Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - Continuous favorable policies are being introduced to promote the high-quality development of the TCM industry, with significant R&D investments from leading companies [34][38] - In the first half of 2024, six new TCM drugs were approved, marking a historical high for the same period [41]