基础化工：市场回暖库存降低，百菌清价格大幅增长

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Overweight [2] Core Insights - The market is recovering with reduced inventory, leading to a significant increase in the price of Bacillus thuringiensis (百菌清). The price rose from 16,500 CNY/ton on May 10, 2024, to 27,500 CNY/ton by December 8, 2024, marking a 66.67% increase from the historical low [3] - The supply side of the Bacillus thuringiensis industry is characterized by a clear market structure with no new production capacity expected. The total domestic production capacity is 78,000 tons, with a high concentration ratio (CR2) of 83.33% [4] - The demand for Bacillus thuringiensis is expected to remain strong due to increased overseas market demand, particularly in South America, where the soybean rust disease has led to a surge in demand for effective control measures [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - As of December 6, 2024, Bacillus thuringiensis factory inventory has decreased by 50% since June, now standing at only 90 tons. This reduction in inventory, combined with seasonal demand peaks, is likely to sustain the price increase [3] Industry Structure - The Bacillus thuringiensis industry has a high market concentration, with major producers including Jiangsu Xinhai (30,000 tons) and Su Li Co. (35,000 tons). The regulatory environment restricts new entrants due to the toxic nature of cyanide waste produced during manufacturing [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Limin Co. (利民股份) and Su Li Co. (苏利股份), which are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated price increases in Bacillus thuringiensis due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [8]