2024年12月政治局会议点评：货币政策适度宽松，“超常规”想象空间大

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The December meeting expressed greater confidence in achieving the annual economic goals compared to the September meeting, which acknowledged new challenges in economic operations[3] - The macro policy language has become more positive, indicating a potential increase in policy strength, especially with the term "extraordinary" suggesting significant future measures[4] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The shift in monetary policy language from "prudent" to "moderately loose" is notable, with the last use of "moderately loose" dating back to November 2008, suggesting potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[5] - Fiscal policy is expected to become more aggressive, with a possibility of the 2025 deficit target exceeding 3%[5] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The focus on expanding domestic demand has intensified, with a commitment to "comprehensively expand domestic demand," indicating a stronger push for consumption compared to previous meetings[6] - There is an expectation for significant policy space to boost consumption, reflecting a shift from previous meetings that did not emphasize these areas[6] Group 4: Market Stability - The December meeting explicitly mentioned stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, continuing the emphasis on these sectors since September, which may lead to new supportive policies[9]