东海证券：晨会纪要-20241213

Key Recommendations - The report highlights the restructuring and transformation of the non-bank financial industry under policy guidance, emphasizing the need for adaptation to new regulations and market conditions [7] - It notes that the securities index rose by 35% and the insurance index by 36% as of the end of November 2024, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by over 20 percentage points [7] - The report suggests three major trends in the securities sector: deepening investment reforms, cautious equity financing with opportunities in mergers and acquisitions, and accelerated consolidation in the brokerage industry [8] Export and Domestic Demand Analysis - The report indicates that while export growth has slowed, it remains resilient, with November exports valued at $312.3 billion, the highest since September 2022 [10] - It mentions that the trade surplus expanded to $97.443 billion in November, despite a decline in imports by 3.9% year-on-year [9][10] - The report emphasizes the need for policy support to boost domestic demand, as current domestic demand remains weak, with November imports at $214.87 billion [13] Economic Policy Updates - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of maintaining stable economic growth, promoting domestic demand, and implementing proactive fiscal policies [15] - The report discusses the implementation of a personal pension system starting December 15, 2024, aimed at expanding tax incentives and optimizing product offerings [17] - It also notes the European Central Bank's decision to lower key interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the fourth rate cut of the year [18] Market Performance Overview - The A-share market showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3461 points, up 0.85%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1% [19] - The report highlights that 90% of sectors closed in the green, with significant inflows into consumer sectors such as retail and food processing [20] - It notes that the banking sector also performed well, with a 1.26% increase, supported by a favorable technical outlook [22]