房地产2024年12月中央经济工作会议点评：2025：蓄势待发
ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2024-12-13 05:23

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for proactive macro policies to stabilize the real estate market and stock market, indicating a strong commitment to reversing the downward trend in the real estate sector [2][4] - The report suggests that the government will implement more aggressive fiscal policies, including increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and issuing special long-term bonds to support real estate policies, with an estimated funding requirement exceeding 10 trillion yuan [3][4] - The report highlights the importance of a comprehensive policy approach to stabilize the real estate market, which includes not only real estate policies but also measures to support employment and boost consumption [4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on real estate stocks, suggesting that as uncertainties around policy diminish, there is potential for valuation recovery [5][7] - Specific companies to watch include Vanke A, JinDi Group, New Town Holdings, Longfor Group, and several leading real estate firms such as Poly Developments and China Overseas Land & Investment [7] Policy Framework - The report outlines a framework for 2025 that includes stabilizing asset prices through controlled land supply and promoting urban renewal projects, which are expected to drive investment in real estate and infrastructure [4][19] - The emphasis on urban renewal and infrastructure development is seen as a critical strategy to address supply-demand imbalances and stimulate economic growth [19][21] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The report indicates that the government will adopt a more proactive fiscal policy, including increasing the issuance of special bonds and optimizing fiscal expenditure to support the real estate sector [3][21] - It also mentions the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to ensure liquidity aligns with economic growth expectations [21][25]