2024年中央经济工作会议解读：不一样的经济工作会议

Economic Outlook - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand due to uncertainties in external demand[1] - The GDP growth target for next year is expected to be around 5%[23] - The focus on residents' income growth and reasonable price increases has been heightened, indicating a shift towards stabilizing growth and employment[21] Monetary Policy - The conference directly mentioned the possibility of timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, reflecting a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy[25] - This year, the 7-day OMO rate has been cut by 30 basis points, and the RRR has been reduced by 100 basis points, with an additional 25-50 basis points of room for further cuts expected[25] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to increase to around 4% next year, with the issuance of special long-term bonds expected to rise to approximately 1.5 trillion yuan[27] - Local government special bonds are anticipated to increase to around 4.5 trillion yuan, supporting infrastructure and investment projects[27] Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is identified as a primary task, with initiatives to boost consumption and investment efficiency[28] - Policies aimed at increasing the income of low- and middle-income groups are expected to enhance consumer capacity and willingness[30] Risk Management - Real estate remains a key focus for risk prevention, with measures to stabilize the market and manage local government debt risks[32] - The conference highlighted the need to address risks in key areas, including real estate and local financial institutions, to prevent systemic risks[32] Technological Innovation - The conference emphasizes the role of technological innovation in driving new productive forces and the need to regulate "involution" competition[31] - Initiatives such as "Artificial Intelligence+" are expected to be prioritized, with a focus on strategic emerging industries like AI and semiconductors[31]