Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase from 3.0% in 2024 to around 4.0% in 2025[2] - New local government special bond issuance is projected to rise from CNY 3.9 trillion to approximately CNY 7 trillion, including CNY 2.8 trillion for debt resolution[2] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is anticipated to increase from CNY 1 trillion to between CNY 1.5 trillion and CNY 2 trillion[3] Monetary Policy - A policy interest rate cut of up to 0.5 percentage points is expected, higher than the 0.3 percentage points cut in 2024[3] - The growth rate of social financing and money supply is projected to align with economic growth and price level expectations[3] - Significant support for consumer credit is anticipated, with potential targeted tools to enhance financing conditions for residents[7] Real Estate Policy - The focus will be on stabilizing the real estate market, with measures including lowering mortgage rates and increasing credit for real estate companies[4] - The priority for 2025 is to boost consumption, with a doubling of funds for durable goods replacement to CNY 300 billion[7] - The actual mortgage rates, adjusted for price factors, are expected to decrease to stimulate demand[4] Investment Strategy - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at around 4.0%, a slight increase from the previous year[8] - Infrastructure investment will continue to grow, with local government special bond issuance for projects expected to reach CNY 3 trillion[8] - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to remain robust at around 7.0% despite external uncertainties[9] External Trade and Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate is forecasted to remain between 4.5% and 5.0% in 2025, supported by domestic demand expansion[12] - Measures to stabilize foreign trade will include expanding export credit insurance and enhancing cross-border e-commerce initiatives[12] - The government aims to deepen reforms to attract foreign investment and stabilize the external trade environment[10]
宏观研究:2024年12月中央经济工作会议要点解读
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2024-12-13 05:52