2024年中央经济工作会议解读：实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，扩大国内需求
Guoxin Securities·2024-12-13 05:54

Group 1: Economic Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for "more proactive macro policies" to expand domestic demand in 2025[7] - Fiscal policy will focus on increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and issuing long-term special bonds, which is expected to significantly expand government leverage space in 2025[7] - Monetary policy will adopt a moderately loose approach, with potential for interest rate cuts and maintaining ample liquidity to match the growth of money supply with economic growth expectations[7] Group 2: Domestic Demand - The conference proposed actions to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency, indicating a shift in fiscal policy towards consumer spending in 2025[8] - Specific measures may include issuing consumption vouchers and promoting trade-in programs for durable goods[8] - Investment policies will support key projects and enhance the coordination between fiscal and financial efforts to stimulate social investment[8] Group 3: Real Estate Policy - The conference highlighted the need to stabilize the real estate market and implement urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, with expectations for increased policy support in 2025[25] - The year 2024 is likely to be the bottom of the current real estate cycle, with policies aimed at market stabilization[25] Group 4: Social Policy - Emphasis was placed on enhancing social welfare and improving the quality of life for citizens, with increased spending on healthcare, childbirth, and unemployment insurance expected[31] - The goal is to lower living costs for residents, thereby supporting consumption growth[31] Group 5: Market Trends - Historically, the A-share market tends to experience initial volatility followed by a rally after the Central Economic Work Conference, with an average increase of 0.78% within 20 trading days post-conference[32] - The conference's outcomes are expected to clarify investment themes for the following year, influencing market styles and sector performance[32]