保险行业2025年年度策略：资产负债结构调整下的破局与重构

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance and a "Hold" rating for Ping An Insurance, with a focus on companies with stable performance and strong dividend insurance sales capabilities [2][3][106][114]. Core Insights - The insurance sector has shown significant valuation recovery, outperforming the broader market, with the insurance index rising by 36.00% compared to the 14.15% increase in the CSI 300 index as of November 30, 2024 [14][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing the asset-liability structure to enhance valuation recovery, with a focus on stable underwriting and investment profits as core strategies for 2025 [2][3][106]. - The anticipated challenges for new business sales in 2025 include high base effects from previous years and potential impacts from regulatory changes, while growth opportunities may arise from improved premium conversion rates through financial products [40][51][106]. Summary by Sections 1. Annual Review: Asset-Liability Resonance and Significant Valuation Recovery - The insurance sector has outperformed the market, with notable gains in individual companies such as New China Life and China Life [14][19]. - The valuation recovery is attributed to narrowing interest rate declines and improved market conditions, particularly in the real estate sector [14][15]. 2. Industry Outlook: Liability Cost Optimization and Investment Structure Adjustment - The report outlines the dual components of insurance profitability: underwriting profit and investment profit, highlighting the need for adjustments in both areas to enhance overall performance [31][32]. - Investment expectations are under pressure due to declining interest rates and high base effects from previous market performance, necessitating a focus on optimizing asset structures [68][69]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Continued Optimism for the Insurance Sector - The report suggests that the insurance sector still has room for valuation improvement, driven by strong beta characteristics and ongoing asset-liability structure optimization [106][108]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in companies with stable performance and strong capabilities in dividend insurance sales, such as Ping An and China Pacific Insurance [110][113].