GOLDWIND(002202) Tai Ping Yang·2024-12-13 06:10Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Goldwind Technology (002202) [4]. Core Views - Goldwind Technology has a long history and has successfully navigated multiple industry cycles, demonstrating its ability to maintain profitability even during downturns. The company has diversified its revenue streams from wind turbine manufacturing to wind farm investment and development, as well as wind power services [1][19]. - The domestic wind turbine market is experiencing increasing concentration, with leading companies expected to benefit more. As of 2023, the market share of the top three wind turbine manufacturers (CR3) is 51.60%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.64 percentage points [1]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with external orders amounting to 41.38 GW as of Q3 2024, which supports its market share growth [1][19]. Summary by Sections Company History and Performance - Goldwind Technology was established in 1998 and has undergone several transformations, with a clear shareholding structure. As of Q3 2024, state-owned enterprises hold 20.94% of the shares [19]. - The company has shown a recovery in performance, with a revenue of 202.02 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 13.87 billion yuan, up 10.83% year-on-year [23][19]. Domestic Market Outlook - The domestic wind turbine bidding scale reached a historical high in 2024, with a total of 127.00 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 108.14%. The onshore wind turbine bidding is expected to reach around 130 GW in 2024 [36]. - The domestic wind power installed capacity is projected to grow rapidly, with an expected new installation of 87.46 GW in 2024, driven by both onshore and offshore wind projects [50]. Global Market Trends - Globally, wind power installations are expected to grow significantly, with total new installations projected to increase from 117 GW in 2023 to 178 GW by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 9% [55]. - Offshore wind installations are anticipated to see substantial growth, with new capacity expected to rise from 11 GW in 2023 to 33 GW by 2028, indicating a CAGR of 25% [55]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 606.03 billion yuan, 714.13 billion yuan, and 773.47 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.11%, 17.84%, and 8.31% [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 27.35 billion yuan, 32.77 billion yuan, and 43.05 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 105.45%, 19.83%, and 31.37% [4][5].